000 AGXX40 KNHC 092110 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 510 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. Marine conditions will gradually improve across the SW Gulf through Thursday. By Thursday morning, expect seas 12 ft or greater from 20N to 23N W of 95W with seas up to 16 ft. Elsewhere, S of 22N W of 91W the forecast calls for E to SE winds of 20 to 30 kt, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Winds and seas will further diminish by Thu night. A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings beginning on Thu, move slowly westward during the overnight hours, and dissipate over the SW Gulf by late each morning. A surge of fresh to locally strong winds will accompany the trough with seas of 3-5 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh to locally strong nocturnal trades are expected along the N coasts of Colombia and Venezuela to include the Gulf of Venezuela, resulting in seas to 8 ft propagating W across the SW Caribbean between 11N and 15N. Marine guidance is suggesting that the pressure gradient will tighten across the basin on Mon night with fresh to strong trades developing across the east and central Caribbean S of 18N E of 80W on Tue. A tropical wave extends from 23N52W to 10N56W. The wave currently moving across the Tropical N Atlantic will reach the Lesser Antilles this evening, move across the eastern Caribbean on Thu and pass through the Central Caribbean on Fri, then slow somewhat as it continues through the western Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. An area of fresh to strong winds, with seas up to 9 ft is noted east of the northern end of the wave axis, and mainly from 19N to 22N between 49W and 52W. These marine conditions are expected to follow the wave through late tonight. A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 17N55W. The Experimental GOES16 is showing that the center is totally exposed to the west of the deep convection. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, conditions are forecast to become somewhat conducive for development of this system late this week and this weekend while it moves northwestward over the western Atlantic. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface trough extending from 27N73W to 23N77W will reach the NW Bahamas this evening and move across south Florida late tonight and Thu. Disorganized shower activity is noted in association with this trough. Although development appears unlikely, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the SE waters beginning this evening through Fri, reaching the SE Bahamas by Sat morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with wave, that extends from 23N52W to 10N56W or about 350 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands has continued to increase slightly in organization since yesterday. While development should be slow to occur due to unfavorable environmental conditions, the environment is forecast to improve by this weekend while the trough moves northwestward over the western Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected during the evening hours just north of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Hurricane Warning today into tonight. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Tropical Storm Warning today into tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.