000 AGXX40 KNHC 060531 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 131 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge will meander from the Florida Big Bend to the NE Texas coast through Thu. A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and again on Mon evening, move slowly westward during the overnight hours, and dissipate over the SW Gulf by late each morning. Expect a fresh to locally strong NE-E-SE wind shift, and 3-5 ft seas, along this trough both nights. The pressure gradient is forecast to further tighten beginning early Tue in association with a tropical low, possibly a tropical cyclone, along a tropical wave that will move WNW across the Yucatan Peninsula late Mon night and Tue, all the while accompanied by large rainfall accumulations and strong to near gale force cyclonic winds mainly over the northern semicircle of the low pres. For now official grids depict the low emerging into the Bay of Campeche near 19.5N91W on Tue evening, and gradually re-strengthening...possibly into a tropical cyclone...as it continues NW reaching near 21N95W late Wed, and moving inland Mexico near 21.5N98W early Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A broad tropical wave is currently analyzed along 79W with a low to mid level cyclonic circulation appearing to develop near 14N78W. Strong convection is currently observed along the wave at 13N, and across the N-Central Caribbean between 72W and 80W. Will depict a large area of convection in the weather grids for the next several days along the forecast positions of the wave. Ships observations, scatterometer and altimeter data currently indicate strong to near gale force easterly winds, with seas to 9 ft across the Central Caribbean, and these conditions are forecast to accompany the wave with the associated surface low, or tropical cyclone, forecast near 17N83W this evening, near 17.5N87W on Mon evening and inland over the Yucatan Peninsula late Mon night. Expect the associated winds to diminish to 20 kt or less across the W Caribbean by late Tue. Fresh to locally strong pulses are expected along the NW coast of Colombia this evening, with these nocturnal conditions beginning again on Tue evening. Strong NE-E winds and seas to 8 ft will arrive near 17N55W on Tue ahead of a tropical low associated with a tropical wave that will cross 55W on Wed evening with favorable environment conditions for tropical cyclone formation as the low continues NW across the Leewards on Thu evening. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface high near 29N70W will drift northward reaching along 30N on Mon where it will meander through Thu with a ridge extending W to NE Florida. Light to locally moderate southerly flow expected N of the ridge. The northern extent of a tropical wave is currently along 79N. Fresh E trades will shift W across the Old Bahama Channel through Mon evening with 3 to 5 ft seas. Seas to 8 ft will reach 20N55W on Tue evening ahead of a tropical low associated with a tropical wave that will reach the Leewards on Thu evening with favorable environment conditions for tropical cyclone formation. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.