000 AGXX40 KNHC 051909 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 309 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge from the Florida Big Bend to the Texas Coastal Bend will meander along this position through Wed. Convection currently along the northern Gulf Coast from near Port Lavaca Texas to near Apalachicola Florida is gradually dissipating. A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Mon evening, move slowly westward during the overnight hours, then dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Expect a moderate to locally fresh NE-E-SE wind shift, and 2-4 ft seas, along this trough through Mon. The pressure gradient is then forecast to tighten in association with a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Channel likely accompanied by a tropical low that will move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon night and Tue accompanied by large rainfall accumulations and strong to near gale force cyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A broad tropical wave is currently analyzed along 76W. Strong convection is currently observed along and east of the wave axis. Animated satellite imagery and short term model guidance both suggest surface low pressure maybe developing along the wave near 14N. A large area of convection will be depicted in the weather grids for the next several days along the forecast positions of the wave. Ship observations, scatterometer and altimeter data indicate strong to near gale force easterly winds, with seas to 10 ft across the Central Caribbean, and these conditions are forecast to accompany the wave and surface low. Fresh to locally strong pulses are expected along the NW coast of Colombia through late Sun. Seas to 8 ft will arrive near 18N55W on Tue night ahead of a tropical low associated with a tropical wave that will cross 55W on Wed with favorable environment conditions for tropical cyclone formation. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface high near 29N70W will drift slowly N through Wed with a ridge extending WSW to NE Florida. Light to locally moderate SW flow is expected N of the ridge. The northern extent of a tropical wave currently reaches the northern shore of Hispaniola along 76N. Expect fresh to strong E trades along the northern coastline of Hispaniola tonight. Fresh E trades will shift W across the Old Bahama Channel through Tue. Seas to 8 ft will reach 20N55W on Tue night ahead of a tropical low associated with a tropical wave that will reach 20N55W on Wed with favorable environment conditions for tropical cyclone formation. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.