000 AGXX40 KNHC 050509 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge from Tampa Bay to the Texas Coastal Bend will shift N to a position from Tampa Bay to NE Texas on Sun and then meander along this position through Wed. Convection currently over the N-Central and NE gulf waters is gradually dissipating. A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Mon evening, move slowly westward during the overnight hours, and dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Expect a moderate to locally fresh NE-E-SE wind shift, and 2-4 ft seas, along this trough through Mon. The pressure gradient is then forecast to tighten in association with a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Channel likely accompanied by a tropical low that will move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon night and Tue accompanied by large rainfall accumulations and strong to near gale force cyclonic winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A broad tropical wave is currently analyzed along 73W. Strong convection is currently observed to the S of 14N along the wave, and a large area of convection will be depicted in the weather grids for the next several days along the forecast positions of the wave. Ships observations, scatterometer and altimeter data indicate strong to near gale force easterly winds, with seas to 10 ft across the Central Caribbean, and these conditions are forecast to accompany the wave. Fresh to locally strong pulses are expected along the NW coast of Colombia through late Sun. Seas to 8 ft will arrive near 18N55W on Tue night ahead of a tropical low associated with a tropical wave that will cross 55W on Wed with favorable environment conditions for tropical cyclone formation. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface high near 29N70W will drift slowly N through Wed with a ridge extending WSW to NE Florida. Light to locally moderate SW flow expected N of the ridge. The northern extent of a tropical wave is currently along 73N. Expect fresh to strong E trades across the Windward Passage this morning. Fresh E trades will shift W across the Old Bahama Channel through Tue. Seas to 8 ft will reach 20N55W on Tue night ahead of a tropical low associated with a tropical wave that will reach 20N55W on Wed with favorable environment conditions for tropical cyclone formation. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.