000 AGXX40 KNHC 310707 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 307 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Tampa Bay area of Florida westward to near Galveston, Texas. An area of low pressure has developed along the front near 27.7N 83.8W. This low has a medium chance in the near term to become a tropical cyclone as it drifts eastward. Recent Scatterometer passes confirm 20 to 25 kt winds near the low, with a very small area of 30 kt winds in convection on the north side of the center. The wind forecast has been adjusted over the east central Gulf to reflect this new data, with fresh to strong winds expected to continue over this area through today. The low is expected to move across central Florida tonight, while the stationary front transitions to a surface trough. The trough will then begin to drift northward to the northern Gulf coast through the middle of the week. Numerous showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary/trough the next several days. Elsewhere, a ridge axis extends to the Florida Straits and will begin to expand westward over the next day or two. This pattern will support mainly gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf basin to the south of the front and low. By mid week, the ridge axis will shift northward to the central Gulf, with moderate east to southeast winds developing across the southern Gulf. A trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, move W during the overnight hours dissipating over the SW Gulf each morning. Winds associated with this trough may increase to 20 kt later this week as the ridge axis shifts to the north of this portion of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Ridging N of the area continues to support fresh to locally strong trade across the Caribbean, roughly to the S of 17N between 66W and 80W. The strongest winds will occur nocturnally along the coast of NW Venezuela and Northern Colombia, with the area of strong winds expanding N to along 13.5N this morning. These nightly events will be weaker for the remainder of the week, with only fresh NE-E winds expected on Tue night. Guidance then suggests a band of strong NE winds briefly along the Colombian coast on Wed night and along extreme N colombia on Fri night. Expect strong E winds along the S coast of Hispaniola beginning late Tue night with strong pulses through Fri evening. Fresh ENE winds, with combined seas to 8 ft, will spread W across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles in association with a tropical wave today. These wind/sea conditions will reach the NE Caribbean passages on Tue evening, the Virgin Islands on Wed, then subside on Wed night as the wave continues westward through the Central Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An E to W ridge will meander from around 30N55W to NW Cuba through today, shift back N and extend across the Florida Straits on Mon and Tue, then extend across southern Fl on Wed, before reaching from 30N55W to central Florida on Thu and Fri. Fresh southerly flow, with seas to 8 ft along 30N, is currently observed N of the ridge and ahead of a weak cold front extending from 31N76W to the Daytona Beach, Fl with a organizing low near 27.7N83.8W. The front is beginning to stall and will meander from 31N76W to Port Canaveral, Fl today and Mon with fresh NE flow across the waters NW of the front. The low over the eastern Gulf will propagate northeast over central Florida tonight then the northwest waters Tue and Wed. There is medium chance for this low to develop into a tropical cyclone before crossing the Florida peninsula. After the low passes, the front will transition to a trough and move northward, and north of our waters by Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh easterly flow is forecast S of the ridge, except becoming strong during the late afternoons and evenings along the N coast of Hispaniola, and occasionally spreading W across the Atlc approach to the Windward Passage, beginning this afternoon. Further E, the northern extent of a tropical wave will pass W through the tropical waters S of 22N with fresh NE flow E of 60W beginning this morning, with seas building to 8 ft along 55W late tonight. Late this week, the center of the high will re-establish itself over the eastern portion of the forecast waters near 29N70W, which will help to decrease winds over the forecast waters. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.