000 AGXX40 KNHC 301712 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 112 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... An E to W ridge extending from Cuba to SE Texas will continue to weaken as a cold front continues to move S across the northern gulf waters. The front is accompanied by a moderate to locally fresh SW-W-NW wind shift across the waters to the E of 91W. A gentle NW-N-NE wind shift is noted along the front W of 91W. The front is enhancing considerable convection, which will be depicted in the weather grids for the duration of the front. Latest model guidance consensus is a little more aggressive with the front which is now expected to stall and meander from near Tampa Bay to 26.5N91W to the Texas Coastal Bend late tonight through Mon. Guidance is also more aggressive with the development of a frontal wave low along the front over the NE gulf waters, and this low was added to 15Z surface analysis this morning based on a cyclonic swirl evident on radar as well as Goes16 visibility imagery. This low will drift slowly SE and then E through Mon reaching inland Florida late Mon night into early Tue accompanied by fresh cyclonic winds as well as a rain threat along the Florida coast. The front should begin to drift N on Mon night as a very convective warm front. Expect whatever remains of the front to reach the northern coastal plains around sunrise on Thu as a ridge rebuilds E to W from Central Florida to the Texas Coastal Bend. Further S...a thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening. The trough will move slowly westward during the overnight hours, and dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Only a moderate NE-E-SE wind shift, and 2-3 ft seas, is forecast along the trough through Wed, then a moderate to fresh shift, and 3-4 ft seas, is expected along the trough on Thu and Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Ridging N of the area continues to support fresh to locally strong trade across the Caribbean, roughly to the S of 17N between 66W and 80W. The strongest winds will occur nocturnally along the coast of NW Venezuela and Northern Colombia, with the area of strong winds expanding N to along 13.5N tonight. These nightly events will be considerably weaker on Mon night, then only fresh NE-E winds expected on Tue night. Guidance suggests a band of strong NE winds briefly along the Colombian coast on Wed night and along extreme N colombia on Fri night. Expect strong E winds along the S coast of Hispaniola beginning late Tue night with strong pulses through Fri evening. Moderate trades are expected E of 66W through this evening, then fresh ENE winds, with combined seas to 8 ft, will spread W across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles in association with a tropical wave. These wind/sea conditions will reach the NE Caribbean passages on Tue evening, reach the Virgin Islands on Wed, then subside on Wed night as the wave continues westward through the Central Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An E to W ridge will meander from 30N55W to NW Cuba through Mon, shift back N and extend across the Florida Straits on Mon and Tue, extend across southern Fl on Wed, reach from 30N55W to Fort Pierce Florida on Thu, reach from 29N60W to Port Canaveral Florida on Fri night. A surface high is expected near 30N71W on Sat night with a ridge W to Port of Jacksonville. Fresh southerly flow, with seas to 8 ft along 30N, is currently observed N of the ridge and ahead of a weak cold front extending from 31N78W to the Port of Jacksonville, Fl with a frontal wave low added to the 15Z analysis at 31N80W. The front will stall from 31N77W to Port Canaveral, Fl tonight and Mon with fresh NE flow across the waters NW of the front. There is a possibility of another weak low developing along the front, and racing NE on Tue as the front begins to drift W. Remnants of the front should be back inland the SE CONUS late Thu. Moderate to locally fresh easterly flow is forecast S of the ridge, except becoming strong during the late afternoons and evenings along the N coast of Hispaniola, and occasionally spreading W across the AtlC approach to the Windward Passage, all beginning on Mon afternoon. Further E, the northern extent of a tropical wave will pass W through the tropical waters S of 22N with fresh NE flow E of 60W beginning tonight, with seas building to 8 ft along 55W late Mon night. Fresh E flow expected E of 77W across the Old Bahama Channel on Wed. The gradient should relax with moderate E flow throughout the entire Bahama Channel and Straits of Florida late in the week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.