000 AGXX40 KNHC 290903 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 503 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weakening stationary boundary across the NE Gulf has shifted barely inland across NE portions this morning. Mid to upper trough digging SSE along the TX coast aiding in lift out ahead of it across N central portions, where fresh SE winds per recent scat pass providing moisture convergence. Look for that weather to shift inland by afternoon as llvl troffing across the far NW Gulf weakens and shifts NNW. Otherwise, no changes from recent guidance trends. High pressure shifting ENE off mid Atlc coast combining with frontal system across the Great Plains to produce moderate to fresh return flow across all but NE part of basin this morning and will gradually strengthen to fresh to locally strong tonight into Fri as the frontal system moves SE into the TX Panhandle. 4-5 ft seas across NW part W of 90W will increase to 4-6 ft this afternoon, then focus of strong winds forecast to shift a bit W and into far W and NW part, where 5-6 ft seas will develop. Meanwhile, Yucatan diurnal thermal trough will yield strong winds across N and NW peninsula waters, with potential to increase seas briefly to 7 ft. Somewhat similar conditions to continue into the weekend as a weak high settles into the far NE Gulf and the frontal boundary retreats northwest into the Central Plains. Winds will back to SE and focus highest winds and seas W portions. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Atlc ridge now settled across central Atlc with old stalled front and pre frontal trough across Atlc waters N of basin, yielding modest pres gradient across entire basin. Evening scat passes showed fresh to strong trades across S central portions, and across the Gulf of Honduras, while 20 kt winds depicted along NW coast of Hispaniola spilling into Windward Passage. Seas estimated 5-7 ft in Gulf of Honduras and 609 ft from offshore of Colombia into SW Carib. Two tropical waves affecting the basin this morning, one exiting the basin and nearing 90W, and aiding in strong flow across Gulf of Honduras, and second wave across central Carib along 70-71W. This second wave has supported active convection past few days and was accompanied by strong AEJ to 30-35 kt and definitive narrow band of strong SAL just ahead of wave axis. These combined for strong TSTM wind gusts reported yesterday morning across ST Lucia. This wave also has had a secondary vort trailing behind by about 5 deg that has lifted NW and currently forcing the line of cnvtn extending NE across the NE Carib. Models have underforecast the northern extend of this cnvtn and am trying to adjust and account for it in this forecast. Appears that TUTT axis N of PR and VI will provide sufficient evacuation for this approaching line of moisture and convection for active diurnal convection today and numerous coverage across the regional waters. Moderate to fresh SE winds will build in behind this broad wave as it shift W across the basin next few days. Broad nature of wave is producing freshening ENE winds along and ahead of wave N of 15N this morning as it moves across the NE Carib and will shift W and brush along S coast of Hispaniola for enhanced Barahona winds with building seas to 7-8 ft tonight into Fri. Atlc ridge will build back into Bahamas Fri-Sat and establish broad area of fresh to strong trades across entire central Carib Sat through Sun with possible nocturnal max along Colombian coast to 30 kt Sat night- Sun morning. The next tropical wave across the central Atlc to reach the tropical N Atlc waters late Fri and has significant negative tilt yielding only moderate to fresh ENE trades with and ahead of wave and modest seas 6-7 ft with passage of wave. Best moisture and wx will occur along and behind this wave. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Atlc ridge has shifted into E central part of basin and extends SW to about 60W where it is interrupted by deep layered troffing. Lingering frontal boundary along 30-31N across NW waters past few days looks to be finally drifting nwd attm as llvl flow is veering ESE there. Portion of front N of 31N will drag E today and continue to produce active wx across far NE waters. Atlc ridge will then build modestly westward along 28-29N Fri-Sat and support moderate to fresh trades S of 24N, except for strong diurnal enhancement along N coastal waters of Hispaniola late afternoon and evenings. Seas will remain 3 to 5 ft over open waters north of 22N, and 4 to 7 ft south of 22N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.