000 AGXX40 KNHC 240816 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 416 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida and over the northern Gulf this morning yielding moderate to fresh E to Se winds across much of S central and W portions. Recent obs and altimeter data suggest seas running 4-6 W of 92W and 2-4 ft E of 92W. Upper low across SW portions continues to interact with tropical wave moisture and wind surge formerly knows as Bret shifting across the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula. Ridge will dominate the basin today then weaken Sun through Tue as upper low reflection and wave energy produce broad llvl trough across the SW Gulf and a weak frontal boundary sinks SSE into nrn coastal waters and reaches N central FL wwd into NE Gulf along about 28.5N by late Tue where it stalls and begins to drift N through Wed. Models in reasonable agreement albeit EC is weaker with boundary. GFS only showing small area of 20 kt winds off N-NW coast of Yucatan Sun and Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A 1021 mb high is centered near 30N65W and extends W across the FL peninsula and providing sufficient pres gradient across the basin for fresh to locally strong E trades across the central portions, where peak seas look to be 7-8 ft off of Colombia and possibly 6-7 ft in lee of Barahona DR. Moderate to fresh SE winds continue across NW Carib behind tropical wave across the Yucatan and producing seas 4-6 ft there. A low lat tropical wave is along 65-66W while a more significant wave along 53W with active convection will move across tropical N Atlc waters late this afternoon and tonight and then across the Carib through Mon. Winds are forecast to back to Ely across NW portions Sat and then freshen across central portions tonight through Sun in between tropical waves, with Colombian nocturnal max reaching 25 kt and 10 ft. Large area of SAL and stable conditions will move into basin Mon-Tue behind this second wave, out ahead of next large tropical wave complex nearing 30W attm. Models forecast strong llvl jet with this second wave but no more than 20 kt at sfc as it moves through tropical Atlc waters and Carib. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure will dominate the region during the next few days, with the ridge axis meandering along 30N through the weekend. A weak cold front will reach near 31N Monday night, helping erode the ridge axis briefly across the NW marine zones late Mon and Tue. Modest strengthening of the mid Atlantic ridge the next couple of days will help maintain fresh trades south of 22N into the southeastern Bahamas through Sunday, then diminishing slightly and veering SE Mon-Tue as ridge shifts ENE across the central Atlc. Large area of SAL occurring ahead of tropical wave near 30W attm will move across NE Carib and enter SE portions Tue. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.