000 AGXX40 KNHC 181819 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 219 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict light to gentle winds over the northeast Gulf, fresh to locally strong winds over the far southeast Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the northeastern Gulf, 4-5 ft over the northwest Gulf, 4-6 ft over the southeast Gulf, and 2-3 ft over the southwest Gulf. A large cyclonic gyre prevails over the northwest Caribbean and Central America. There remains considerable uncertainty with the overall structure, strength, and location of the feature over the Gulf waters as the forecast evolves into early to middle part of the week. Will maintain continuity with previous forecast packages in keeping a general northwest track with this system from the NW Caribbean Sea to across the northern Yucatan peninsula tonight and into the south- central Gulf waters just northwest of the peninsula by Monday evening, then a general northwestward direction through the upcoming week. There remains a high chance that this low will develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, this system will impact the area with strong winds and building seas likely over much of the Gulf during the first half of the week, accompanied by very active and widespread showers and thunderstorms. The rainfall associated to this system will also impact portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba with flash flooding and mudslides possible over prone areas. Interests in the southern Gulf, and surrounding land masses, should monitor the Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest information on this evolving weather scenario. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A Central American Gyre prevails over the northwest Caribbean waters and Central America with active convection prevailing over the northwest waters. The most recent ASCAT passes indicated winds reaching gale force over the waters south of western Cuba. Elsewhere fresh to strong winds prevail over the northern waters south of eastern Cuba and Jamaica, fresh winds elsewhere over the Central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the forecast waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range south of Cuba where winds are the strongest. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean waters, and 6-7 ft over the tropical north Atlantic forecast zones. Gale force winds will remain south of western Cuba through tonight before diminishing below gale force Monday morning. Otherwise, strong to near gale winds will cover most of the northwest Caribbean through late Monday night as the broad low moves through the Yucatan peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build to 8 to 14 ft, with highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. This band of winds and seas shift west of the area by the middle part of the upcoming week. There is currently a high chance that the low will develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, this system will impact the area with strong winds and building seas over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week, accompanied by very active and widespread weather. The rainfall associated to this system will also impact portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba, with flash flooding and mudslides possible over prone areas. Interests in the western Caribbean, and surrounding land masses, should monitor the Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest information on this evolving weather scenario. Outside of this area, high pressure over the western Atlantic will support increasing trade winds and building seas over much of the central and eastern Caribbean early next week, and through the middle part of the week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure prevails over the forecast waters. Latest satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data depict moderate to fresh winds over the southern waters with light to gentle winds over the northern waters. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range outside the Bahamas except for slightly higher seas of 4-6 ft seas south of about 22N, and seas of 1-2 ft west of the Bahamas. High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through midweek. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail over the southwest waters before diminishing midweek. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... Gale Warning today into tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster AL. National Hurricane Center.