000 AGXX40 KNHC 160751 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 351 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... 1015 mb high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf of Mexico is supporting calm to light airs over much of the eastern Gulf this morning. Light to moderate breezes are noted over the western Gulf, except for a small area of stronger winds over the Bay of Campeche to the west of the Yucatan peninsula, as noted in an earlier scatterometer pass. Seas are 0 to 2 ft over the northeast Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. The big forecast question on the horizon continues to be the development and movement of broad low pressure over Central America over the next couple of days. Winds will start to increase over the south central and southeast Gulf starting Saturday night as the low pressure approaches. There continues to be some disagreement among global models regarding the movement of the low through the Gulf starting early next week. While the GFS is now trending with the low more into the western Gulf in better agreement with the ECMWF, it remains much weaker. The forecast follows the more westerly and aggressive ECMWF. There is still a medium chance for tropical cyclone development through the next five days. Regardless, strong winds and building seas are likely over much of the Gulf early next week accompanied by very active and widespread weather. Interests in the eastern Gulf in particular should monitor the Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A relatively weak gradient is in place across the Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic west of 55W, supporting mostly moderate breezes over the region, with fresh trades off the coast of eastern Venezuela following tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean. East to southeast winds will increase tomorrow and Sunday for all but the far southwest Caribbean in response to the development of broad low pressure over Central America Saturday and Sunday. Strong southeast winds are likely Sunday over the northwest Caribbean north of 18N and east of 85W to the south of Cuba with seas building to 8 to 10 ft. The extent of the increasingly strong winds will expand to cover most of the northwest Caribbean Sunday night into Monday as the broad low moves through the Yucatan peninsula, with seas building to 8 to 14 ft with highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. This will be accompanied by a large area of thunderstorms and squalls. This band of winds and seas will shift westward through mid week. Meanwhile building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support increasing trade winds and building seas over much of the central and eastern Caribbean early next week through mid week. Farther east, an active tropical wave will deliver increased winds, seas and convection into the waters east of the Windward Islands early next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... East to west ridge along 27-28N will stay in place through the weekend. Winds are 15 kt or less and seas less than 6 ft north of 22N and are expected to remain relatively quiet throughout the area through Sunday, with moderate to fresh east winds south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to 20 to 25 kt north of Hispaniola at night. Southeast winds will increase from the Leeward Islands through the Bahamas by Monday on the periphery of the developing broad low pressure over Yucatan and Central America moving northwest into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Long fetch of southeast winds will set up from Atlantic through southeast Bahamas early next week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.