000 AGXX40 KNHC 151822 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging continues from the western Atlantic wwd across the NE Gulf and expected to remain in place through Sunday. Anticyclonic winds are 15 kt or less and seas 5 ft or less across the region today, with peak winds and seas across the SE TX coastal waters. Beyond this time the forecast become problematic as models remain in disagreement on the location and shape of broad low pressure, or technically, the Central American gyre lifting NW out of NW Carib, Yucatan and central America and into southern Gulf. GFS remains the farther NE, UKMET the most WNW trajectory, and 00Z EC somewhat in the middle. We prefer a solution closer to the EC attm, but must respect the GFS consistency. Thus GFE grids reflect a watered down version of the GFS to keep strong SE flow across the SE Gulf going into early next week, with sheared out system with N-S trough does not look realistic attm. Still waiting to see the 12Z EC and ensembles. Confidence is medium low attm and forecast will continue to evolve. Regardless, this system will initially be a large gyre with broad area of strong winds around periphery and likely to encompass much of SE and Central Gulf at the least late Sun through Tue and accompanied by very active and widespread weather. Interests in the eastern Gulf in particular should monitor the Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Weak ridge across W Atlc along 27-28N yielding modest pres gradient across the Carib and only around 20 kt across S central portions where morning altimeter data and buoys suggested peak seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh E trades prevail elsewhere attm. The Central America Gyre is gradually developing as forecast by global models and appears centered over Honduras attm. A tropical wave along about 81W is entering the E semicircle of the CAG and will become absorbed with associated moisture continuing to advect W and NW. Following wave near 70W will move into circulation by 48 hours and some llvl energy indicated to move more NW and NW Carib where GFS pulls it Nwd. As this second wave moves into W Carib Atlc ridge will reposition and strengthen somewhat W of 65W and enhance pres gradient and combine with low to mid level dynamics of wave to produce strong e to SE flow across much of N central to NW Carib Sat night through Mon for significant increase in weather and seas. Atlc ridge to build further across W Atlc Mon-Tue for long broad fetch of strong trades across most of basin and building high seas. Associated weather from gyre lifting NW across Yucatan and into Gulf of Mex likely to impact Jamaica, Caymans and Cuba. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... East to west ridge along 27-28N will stay in place through the weekend. Winds are 15 kt or less and seas less than 6 ft north of 22N and are expected to remain relatively quiet throughout the area through Sunday, with moderate to fresh east winds south of 22N, occasionally pulsing to 20 to 25 kt north of Hispaniola at night. Southeast winds will increase from the Leeward Islands through the Bahamas by Monday on the periphery of the developing broad low pressure over Yucatan and Central America moving NW into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Long fetch of E to ESE winds will set up from Atlc through SE Bahamas early next week for significant increase in seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.