000 AGXX40 KNHC 071844 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 244 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Low pressure in the Florida Panhandle will move east to northeast to the western Atlantic through tonight. Expect mainly moderate winds in the Gulf during this time period, except for fresh to locally strong southerly winds in the southeastern Gulf. An upper trough in the western and central Gulf continues to pull a deep moisture plume across the eastern Gulf, supporting rounds of heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms with frequent lightning. The upper trough will slide eastward to the eastern Gulf through tonight, as a cold front moves across the northern Gulf. This will begin a drying trend from northwest to southeast across the Gulf basin tonight through Friday. The front will stall out from central Florida to the south central Gulf on Thursday night, and transition into a surface trough through Friday. The trough will then drift north to northwestward through the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the southeast of the front later this week, and will continue to be likely in the vicinity of the surface trough during the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A ridge from the central Atlantic Ocean to Cuba will weaken slightly today as low pressure crosses from the Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic. This will allow for the fresh to strong winds that have been prevailing in the Caribbean Sea to diminish through the remainder of the week. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. Occasionally 8 ft seas can be expected in the tropical Atlantic waters for the remainder of this week in mixed north swell and enhanced by temporary increases in the easterly trades. An upper trough in the western and central Gulf of Mexico will slide eastward through the latter parts of this week, which will continue to draw deep moisture across the extreme northwest part of the Caribbean Sea. This setup will support rounds of showers and thunderstorms in that part of the basin through Friday. A tropical wave that is moving through the eastern Caribbean Sea will reach the central Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and the western Caribbean on Friday. Another tropical wave currently along 47W/48W will reach the tropical Atlantic forecast waters along 55W on Thursday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... The pressure gradient between a ridge from the central Atlantic Ocean to Cuba, and low pressures and associated stationary frontal boundary north of 31N support fresh to strong southwest winds northwest of a line from about 31N70W to 27N80W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Low pressure in the Florida Panhandle will cross into the western Atlantic Ocean just north of 31N tonight. This will help to continue the area of fresh to strong winds and build seas to 8 to 9 ft across our northern waters. The low will drag a cold front across the northwest waters east of north Florida, stalling from about 31N72W to 29N81W on Friday afternoon. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds will slide east ahead of the front, mainly north of 28N. The combination of the southwest surface flow around the periphery of the ridge, and deep southwest flow aloft associated with an upper trough to the west, continues to draw abundant moisture northwest of a line from 31N70W to the Florida Straits. This pattern is supporting rounds of heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms with frequent lightning. These rounds of precipitation will continue south of the approaching front through Friday. As the upper trough lifts north of the region later on Friday, the coverage of convection will decrease, and become confined near the stalled out frontal boundary. On Saturday the stationary front will begin to dissipate and drift northward, before becoming diffuse along 29N Sunday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster MT. National Hurricane Center.