000 AGXX40 KNHC 070628 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 228 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Low pressure over the north central Gulf will move east to northeast to the western Atlantic through tonight. Mainly moderate winds will occur over the Gulf through this time period, except for fresh to locally strong southerly winds over the southeastern Gulf. An upper trough over the western and central Gulf continues to pull a deep moisture plume across the eastern gulf, supporting rounds of heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms with frequent lightning. The upper trough will slide east to the eastern Gulf through tonight, as a cold front moves across the northern gulf. This will begin a drying trend from northwest to southeast over the Gulf basin tonight through Friday. The front will stall out from central Florida to the south central Gulf on Thursday night, and transition into a surface trough through Friday. The trough will then drift north to northwestward through the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the southeast of the front later this week, and will continue to be likely in the vicinity of the surface trough over the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A high pressure ridge axis from the central Atlantic to Cuba will weaken slightly today as low pressure crosses from the Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic. This will allow for the fresh to strong winds that have been prevailing over the Caribbean to diminish through the remainder of the week. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. Occasionally 8 ft seas can be expected over the tropical Atlantic waters the remainder of this week in mixed north swell and enhanced by temporary increases in the easterly trades. An upper trough over the western and central gulf of Mexico will slide east through the latter parts of this week, which will continue to draw deep moisture over the extreme northwest portion of the Caribbean. This setup will support rounds of showers and thunderstorms over that portion of the basin through Friday. A tropical wave crossing over the eastern Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean Thursday, and the western Caribbean Friday. Another tropical wave currently along 42W will reach the tropical Atlantic forecast waters along 55W by about Thursday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge axis from the central Atlantic to Cuba, and low pressures and associated stationary frontal boundary north of 31N support fresh to strong southwest winds northwest of a line from about 31N70W to 27N70W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Low pressure over the north central Gulf of Mexico will cross into the western Atlantic just north of 31N tonight. This will help to continue the area of fresh to strong winds and build seas to 8 to 9 ft across our northern waters. The low will drag a cold front over the northwest waters east of north Florida, stalling from about 31N72W to 28N81W on Friday. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds will slide east ahead of the front, mainly north of 28N. The combination of the southwest surface flow around the periphery of the ridge axis, and deep southwest flow aloft associated with an upper trough to the west, continues to draw abundant moisture northwest of a line from 31N70W to the Florida Straits. This pattern is supporting rounds of heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms with frequent lightning. These rounds of precipitation will continue south of the approaching front through Friday. As the upper trough lifts north of the region later on Friday, the coverage of convection will decrease, and become confined near the stalled out frontal boundary. On Saturday the stationary front will begin to dissipate and drift northward, before becoming diffuse along about 29N Sunday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.