000 AGXX40 KNHC 060617 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 217 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad area of low pressure and an associated surface trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will move east to northeast toward the northeast Gulf today. The low will then cross northern Florida on Wednesday, while a cold front crosses the northern gulf coast and enters the northern gulf. The cold front will then stall out from central Florida to the southwest Gulf Thursday and dissipate through Friday. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will continue to the east of the low as it makes its way across the Gulf. Gentle winds are expected west of this low under a weak pressure pattern. Once the cold front enters the Gulf, moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected north of the front Wednesday night through early Thursday, then diminishing to moderate as the front stalls later on Thursday. Seas of 2 to 4 ft can be expected across most of the Gulf through the week, except east and southeast of the low where the fresh winds will support seas of 4 to 6 ft. An upper trough digging southeast over the northwest Gulf is drawing deep moisture to the central and eastern Gulf. The interaction of this moisture with the upper trough and surface low will continue to support widespread shower and thunderstorm activity through much of the upcoming week, especially over the northern and eastern Gulf. As the trough shifts east over the central and eastern Gulf later this week, and the cold front enters the northern Gulf, drier conditions will spread over the western and central Gulf. By Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the southeastern Gulf. By Saturday, deep moisture confined to the southeast Gulf will begin to spread northward over the rest of the eastern Gulf with showers and thunderstorms likely. With the interaction of the moisture and this upper trough pattern, thunderstorms that do develop through Thursday have the potential to contain very gusty winds, locally rough seas, and frequent lightning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A high pressure ridge axis will extend from the central Atlantic to the Bahamas and Cuba through the upcoming week. The current ridge axis is stronger than it will be later this week, and has been supporting fresh to strong easterly winds across the central Caribbean, and mainly moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic forecast waters. The ridge will weaken somewhat later this week as a cold front enters the Atlantic waters to the north, which will allow for winds to diminish to mainly gentle to moderate over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic forecast waters, except fresh north of Venezuela to about 15N. Showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Caribbean will continue through this week, increasing in coverage Thursday and Friday as an upper trough moves east over the central and eastern Gulf. A tropical wave void of any convection is now crossing central America from the western Caribbean. Another tropical wave along about 59W will generate numerous showers and thunderstorms along and just behind the wave axis, mainly south of 12N over the tropical Atlantic waters this morning and Windward Islands later today. This wave will cross into the eastern Caribbean tonight, and enter the central Caribbean Wednesday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A high pressure ridge axis extends from the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas to Cuba. Low pressure is moving eastward over the eastern United States, and is emerging over the western Atlantic. In response to the tightening pressure gradient between the low and ridge axis, winds along, north, and northeast of the northwest Bahamas will increase to fresh to strong this morning through Wednesday night, building seas to 8 to 9 ft along 29N- 31N. Another low pressure will then cross the waters just east of north Florida Wednesday night and will then drag a cold front over these waters before the front stalls from about 31N75W to central Florida by Friday. Generally light winds will be near and north of this frontal boundary while moderate to fresh winds prevail to the southeast of the boundary Thursday through Saturday. Deep moisture is in place across Florida and the Bahamas and will interact with an upper trough digging southeast across the central Gulf this week, which will continue to support rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the remainder of the week. The low and frontal boundary will help enhance this shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday night through Saturday mainly north of a line from the Florida Straits to about 31N70W. Thunderstorms that do develop across the area this week have the potential to contain very gusty winds, locally rough seas, and frequent lightning. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.