000 AGXX40 KNHC 050601 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad area of low pressure and an associated surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will meander over the area through tonight, and then begin to drift east to northeast toward the northeast Gulf on Tuesday. The low will then cross northern Florida on Wednesday, while a cold front crosses the northern gulf coast and enters the northern gulf on Wednesday night. The cold front will then stall out from central Florida to the west central Gulf Thursday night and dissipate through Friday. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will continue to the east of the low as it makes its way across the Gulf the next few days. Gentle winds are expected north and west of this low under a weak pressure pattern. Once the cold front enters the Gulf, moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected north of the front Wednesday night through early Thursday, then diminishing to moderate as the front stalls later on Thursday. Seas of 2 to 4 ft can be expected across most of the Gulf through the week, except just east and southeast of the low where the fresh winds will support seas to 6 ft. A plume of deep moisture continues over the eastern Gulf tonight supporting showers and isolated thunderstorms. An upper trough will dig southeast over the north gulf later today, and will draw a resurgence of moisture to the central Gulf, while amplifying the southwest to northeast moisture plume over the eastern gulf. The interaction of this moisture with the upper trough and surface low will support widespread shower and thunderstorm activity through much of the upcoming week. As the trough digs southeast over the central gulf later this week, and the cold front enters the northern Gulf, drier conditions will spread over the western and central Gulf. By Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the southeastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A high pressure ridge axis will extend from the central Atlantic to the Bahamas through the middle of this week, supporting fresh to strong easterly winds across the central Caribbean, and mainly moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic forecast waters. The ridge will break down to the north of the Caribbean later this week, which will allow for winds to diminish to mainly gentle to moderate over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic forecast waters, except fresh north of Venezuela to about 15N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwestern Caribbean will continue through Tuesday. As an upper trough digs southeast over the central Gulf through the middle of the week, showers and thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage over the northwestern Caribbean. A tropical wave is entering the western Caribbean void of any convection. This wave will begin to cross central America Tuesday night. Another tropical wave along about 50W will reach the tropical Atlantic forecast waters tonight, and the Windward Islands by Wednesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A high pressure ridge axis extends from east to west along about 27N and will continue supporting light to moderate winds over the northern waters, and moderate to fresh winds over the southern waters south of about 25N through today. The ridge axis will shift southeastward as low pressure moves eastward over the eastern United States later today. This will bring an increase in southwesterly winds to moderate to fresh north of the Bahamas late today and tonight. These winds will then prevail through Wednesday night. Low pressure will cross the waters just east of north Florida Wednesday night and will then drag a cold front over these waters before the front stalls from about 31N75W to central Florida by Friday. Generally light winds will be near and north of this frontal boundary while moderate to fresh winds continue to the south of the boundary. Deep moisture is in place across Florida and the Bahamas and will interact with an upper trough digging southeast across the central Gulf this week to support rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the upcoming week. The low and frontal boundary will help enhance this shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday through Friday mainly north of a line from the Florida Straits to about 31N70W. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.