000 AGXX40 KNHC 041838 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface analysis show weak low pressure centered over the SW Gulf near 23N94W with a pressure of 1007 mb. A trough extends from the low northward to near 26N94W, while another trough extends from the low to coast of Mexico near Coatzacoalcos. In general, broad troughing is over the western Gulf, while weak high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf. The low and broad trough will drift north through Monday, then eastward to the northeast Gulf Tuesday through Thursday as an upper trough digs southeastward from the central United States toward the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are around the immediate vicinity of the low, except within about 180 nm in the northeast and southeast quadrants where winds of fresh to strong category are noted due to a tight pressure gradient between the low and the high pressure to its northeast. Winds elsewhere are gentle to moderate southeast to south as reported by the latest buoy and platform observations. The observations show seas in the range of 3-5 ft southwest of a line from southwest Louisiana to the tip of northwest Cuba, except for higher seas of 5-8 ft within 180 nm of the low in the northeast and southeast quadrants. Lower seas of 1-3 ft are to the northeast of the same line. The low is forecast to drift northward through tonight while weakening and possibly dissipating altogether. A rather robust upper trough will move across the NW Gulf on Monday attendant by a series of upper disturbances. With plenty of moisture and instability available, this should be sufficient for the low to regenerate over the NW Gulf on Monday. The low will then be caught up in strong southerly flow ahead of the trough, and driven in a northeast direction to the NE Gulf by Tuesday. The low will accelerate as it continue northeast to along the U.S. southeast coast on Wednesday. The low will push a cold front across the northern and central Gulf waters Tuesday through Wednesday night, reaching the eastern Gulf Thursday at which time it is expected to become stationary. Models suggest that high pressure behind the front will be rather weak with its associated gradient supporting at most moderate northerly winds across the area. These winds then diminish to light to gentle winds on Friday as the remnants of diffuse stationary front linger across portions of the eastern Gulf waters. Model moisture fields are very consistent in depicting ample deep moisture resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the much of the Gulf ahead of the mid to upper level trough. Drier air will filter in behind the trough and associated surface cold front described above allowing for precipitation to decrease. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic and low pressures over Colombia and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough will continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds over the south central Caribbean through Wednesday. The pressure pattern in place the past few days over the western Caribbean will break down as the ridge axis to the north retreats eastward early this upcoming week. Therefore, the nocturnally strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras are only expected for tonight, then diminishing for the remainder of this week. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere through Wednesday except for light winds south of 10N over the southwestern Caribbean. The high to the north of the area will slide eastward mid week which will diminish the winds to mainly 10 to 15 kt over the Caribbean for Wednesday night through Friday night, except for 15-20 kt winds over the central Caribbean, 20-25 kt winds along the coast of Venezuela through early Thursday, and light winds over the western Caribbean Thursday through Friday night. An upper trough will dig southeast to the northern Gulf this week, which will help to drag a moisture plume and associated unsettled weather southward, which may clip the northwestern Caribbean with showers and thunderstorms periodically throughout the upcoming week. A tropical wave with axis along 72W/73W will reach the western Caribbean by Monday evening and move inland central America Tuesday night. Another tropical wave along 51W will spread showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic zones south of 15N as it crosses the zones beginning Monday. The wave should then reach the Windward Islands Tuesday, then move across the eastern Caribbean from around Tuesday night through Thursday and over the eastern portion of central Caribbean Friday. Seas to 8 ft from about 11N to 16N east of the Windward Islands will subside to below 8 ft by early on Tuesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A high pressure ridge axis extends across the northern waters along about 27N with light to gentle winds north of 26N and moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 26N. The ridge will retreat eastward tonight through Monday as low pressure from the Gulf of Mexico tracks northeastward along the U.S. southeast coast through Wednesday. The low will push a cold front towards the far northwest part of the area on Wednesday. The front will slowly move across the the northwest waters Wednesday night through Friday while weakening and eventually stalling on Friday. The gradient ahead of the front between it and the retreating ridge should be enough to develop increasing south to southwest winds offshore the Florida NE coast and over the northern waters north of the Bahamas. By Tuesday, fresh to strong southwest winds are expected north of 27N and west of 75W, with these winds likely prevailing through Thursday, and shifting to the northeast portion of zone AMZ113 Thursday night into Friday as the aforementioned cold front becomes stationary. A mid to upper level trough will dig southeastward over the northern Gulf early this week and then shift eastward over Florida late this week. A plume of moisture in place from the southwest Gulf to Florida and Bahamas will interact with this approaching mid to upper level trough and its embedded rounds of shortwave energy this upcoming week to support what will likely be several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This stream of convection is expected to be mainly present over much of the western portions of the basin tonight through Thursday, with the most concentrated convection developing Tuesday through Thursday, as the upper trough digs its deepest south just to the west of the region. The upper trough will begin to lift out Friday, with shower and thunderstorm activity expected to decrease some. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.