000 AGXX40 KNHC 040706 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 306 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak low pressure is centered over the southwestern Gulf with a broad trough that extends northward from the low across the western Gulf. Weak high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf. The low and broad trough will drift north through Monday, then eastward to the northeast Gulf Tuesday through Thursday as an upper trough digs southeastward from the central United States toward the northern Gulf. Mainly gentle winds will prevail around the low and broad trough, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere through most of the upcoming week. On Thursday, models are forecasting a cold front to enter the northwestern gulf before stalling from central Florida to the central Gulf on Friday. A very moist airmass continues to extend from the Yucatan Peninsula north and east across the majority of the gulf, except the far southwestern Gulf. The mid to upper level pattern that has drawn this moisture across the region will amplify early this week as the upper trough digs southeastward. At the same time, mid level vorticity will round the eastern side of the trough over the very moist airmass which will trigger several rounds of convection over the Gulf through the upcoming week. The shower and thunderstorm activity will be focused east of the upper trough axis, and as the trough axis shifts to the eastern Gulf on Thursday, and a cold front enters the northwestern Gulf, drier conditions will begin to spread from west to east over the Gulf basin. All parts of the Gulf except for the southeast portion should be dry by Friday. In the meantime, marine interests in the Gulf should expect numerous showers and rounds of thunderstorms the next several days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic and low pressures over Colombia and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough will continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds over the south central Caribbean through Wednesday. The pressure pattern in place the past few days over the western Caribbean will break down as the ridge axis to the north retreats eastward early this week. Therefore, the nocturnally strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras are only expected for tonight, then diminishing for the remainder of this week. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected elsewhere through Wednesday except for light winds south of 10N over the southwestern Caribbean. The high to the north of the area will slide east mid week which will decrease the winds to mainly 10 to 15 kt over the Caribbean for the Wednesday night through Friday time period. Exceptions will be 15 to 20 kt winds along the Venezuela coast and light winds over the western Caribbean. An upper trough will dig southeast to the northern Gulf this week, which will help to drag a moisture plume and associated unsettled weather southward, which may clip the northwestern Caribbean with showers and thunderstorms periodically throughout the upcoming week. A tropical wave along 70W will cross to the western Caribbean by late Monday. Another tropical wave along 49W will spread showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic zones south of 15N as it crosses the zones beginning Monday. The wave should then reach the Windward Islands by Tuesday. Seas to 8 ft from about 10N to 15N east of the Windward Islands will decrease below 8 ft by Tuesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A high pressure ridge axis extends across the northern waters along about 27N with light to gentle winds north of 26N and moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 26N. The ridge will retreat eastward through tonight as low pressure crosses the eastern United States. This will bring increasing south to southwest winds offshore east Florida and over the northern waters north of the Bahamas. By Tuesday, fresh to strong southwest winds are expected north of 27N and west of 75W, with these winds likely prevailing through Thursday as a frontal boundary stalls just to the north of the area and the ridge remains to the east. A mid to upper level trough will dig southeastward over the northern Gulf early this week and then shift east over Florida late this week. A plume of moisture in place from the southwest Gulf to Florida and Bahamas will interact with this approaching mid to upper level trough and its embedded rounds of shortwave energy this upcoming week to support what will likely be several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This stream of convection is expected to mainly occur northwest of a line from the Florida Straits to 31N75W tonight through Thursday, with the most concentrated convection developing Tuesday through Thursday, as the upper trough digs its deepest south just to the west of the region. The upper trough will begin to lift out late this week. However, a residual frontal trough will persist from the Florida Straits to near 30N70W supporting ongoing numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms through the end of the upcoming week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.