000 AGXX40 KNHC 030707 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 307 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends east to west across the northern Gulf basin, while broad surface troughing persists over the southwestern Gulf. A thermal trough is moving west off the Yucatan Peninsula and will merge with the broad trough later this morning. Strong east to southeast winds are expected through this morning along and east of the thermal trough, with seas building to 8 ft. This thermal trough will return later tonight with another round of strong winds. The lack of a strong low level pressure pattern over the basin will support mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere over the Gulf basin the next few days. A large plume of deep moisture extends from southeast Mexico to the northeastern Gulf and includes the southeastern Gulf. Currently, heaviest precipitation is associated with the interaction of the thermal trough with the moisture plume, producing heavy rainfall with localized flooding likely over southeastern Mexico. This plume is forecast to remain in place the next several days. A mid to upper level trough over the central United States will dig southeastward through early next week. The eastern side of the upper trough will line up over the deep moisture plume from early through the middle of next week as impulses of energy move from southwest to northeast over the region. This will result in numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms especially from Tuesday through Thursday over the eastern half of the Gulf. Heavy rainfall will be likely over portions of southeast Mexico, Florida, and the eastern Gulf during that time frame. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure over the Atlantic will support fresh to strong easterly winds over the south central Caribbean the next several days, with the strongest winds occurring at night south of about 15N/16N between 70W and 77W. Strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will decrease later this morning, and will develop again tonight. Light winds can be expected south of 10N over the southwest Caribbean through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh east to southeast trades will prevail. A westward moving tropical wave will cross the eastern Caribbean today with an increase of shower and thunderstorm activity along and within a couple hundred nm east of the wave axis. The wave will reach the central Caribbean and Sunday, then reach the western Caribbean Monday night. Another tropical wave over the central Atlantic currently along 45W is expected to reach the tropical Atlantic forecast waters Sunday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A deep plume of moisture extends from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, the northern Bahamas, and our northern waters. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms embedded in this moisture plume will persist over the weekend. A mid to upper level trough will dig southeast over the gulf of Mexico early next week and remain there through the middle of the week. This will help to amplify the moisture plume over the region, and with added mid to upper level energy, will support numerous showers and thunderstorms northwest of a line from the Florida Straits to near 31N70W Monday night through Wednesday. The trough will begin to shift eastward Wednesday night which will shift the focus of shower and thunderstorm activity southeast to the central Bahamas late this week. A weak ridge axis extends across the waters along about 27N supporting gentle winds over the northern waters and moderate to fresh easterly winds over the southern waters. The ridge axis will retreat eastward through Monday as low pressure moves over the eastern United states. This will result in the development of moderate to fresh southwesterly flow developing north of 25N and west of 70W Sunday through Monday. Once the mid to upper level trough sets up west of the area and energy impulses propagate across the northern waters Monday night through Wednesday night, the winds will vary depending on where the surface reflections of these energy impulses will be over the northern waters. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.