000 AGXX40 KNHC 021830 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 230 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will linger over the region the next several days. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge axis will extend from the Atlantic across the northern Gulf. The result will be mainly moderate east to southeast surface winds over the area, except for strong southeast winds between the trough and the high pressure building seas to 8 to 10 ft over portions of the central Gulf by early on Saturday before subsiding to less than 8 ft on Sunday as the gradient weakens. The other exception is for light winds along and just west of the trough axis. On Friday and Saturday evening, a thermal trough will move off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and merge with the larger trough over the southwestern Gulf around daybreak. Winds will increase to fresh to strong along and just east of this thermal trough overnight, with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. The combination of the broad surface trough and a plume of mid to upper level moisture streaming from southwest to northeast from the southwestern Gulf to Florida is supporting widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Forecast models are in good agreement on maintaining this moisture plume through the weekend and most of next week. In addition, the models to some degree suggest that weak low pressure may form along the trough during Saturday and lift in a general northwest direction while pretty much staying on the weak side. Presently, confidence remains low with respect to actual low positions and intensity. Upper level winds don't appear favorable to support deepening of the low pressure once it forms. Will await future model runs to make further assessments regarding the low. In any event, the synoptic pattern in place should result in locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding in prone land areas. Some of the shower and thunderstorm activity may contain locally gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure over the Atlantic will support fresh to strong easterly winds over the south central Caribbean the next several days, with the strongest winds occurring at night south of about 15N/16N between 70W and 77W. On Friday and Saturday night strong winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras. Light winds can be expected south of 10N over the southwest Caribbean through the upcoming week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh east to southeast trades will prevail. A westward moving tropical wave will cross the tropical Atlantic waters today and reach the Windward Islands tonight, bringing an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity along and just behind the wave. This wave will pass south of Puerto Rico on Saturday and Hispaniola on Sunday. Another tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic this afternoon is expected to reach the tropical Atlantic forecast waters early next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure across the basin is supporting mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds north of 25N, and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds south of 25N per latest Ascat passes and buoy observations. The ridge is forecast to begin to weaken tonight, then shift eastward this weekend into early next week in response to a pair of cold front that are expected to move off the U.S. east coast. Prior to these fronts approaching the U.S. east coast, winds over the area will diminish slightly this weekend. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will precede the fronts across much of the NW and N central waters Tuesday through Wednesday night of next week from the pressure difference between the retreating high pressure and lower pressure near the fronts. The possibility of locally strong winds will exist as indicated in latest model 10m wind guidance. Seas are forecast to build to around 9 ft over the far northern portions of zones AMZ113 and AMZ115 Wednesday. A very moist and unstable air mass in place is combining with southwest to west flow aloft where ripples of jet stream energy are present to result in abundant cloudiness along with numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the NW and north- central waters as noted in latest satellite imagery and in doppler radar animation coastal radars. This is only the beginning of more unsettled weather to impact those same waters through the forecast period. Mariners are cautioned that some of the shower and thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by strong gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.