000 AGXX40 KNHC 200722 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 322 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening surface trough is drifting the Straits of Yucatan this morning. The is little associated convection with this feature. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are continuing over the basin between a low pressure trough over interior Mexico and a high pressure ridge extending NW from near Bermuda over the Carolinas. Winds may briefly pulse to between 20 and 25 kt in the Straits of Florida early this morning, then the ridging to the N will shift E and allow the winds to subside. Similarly fresh to strong easterly winds will develop along the NW coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and Sunday night as a thermal trough moves W from the Yucatan. Moderate to fresh southeast return flow over the NW Gulf will diminish through Saturday as ridging aligned the northern Gulf coast weakens. A weak cold front will approach the Texas coast early Sunday, then drift eastward across the northern Gulf through early Monday before stalling and dissipating Tuesday. This will maintain a fairly weak pressure pattern across the Gulf early next week, with the possible exception of the far NE Gulf on Tuesday ahead of the front. Looking ahead, a second cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on Wednesday, then push SE and reach from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Thursday. This front looks fairly strong for one so late in Spring. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A cutoff upper low has drifted slowly SW to near the N Coast of Honduras at 16N85W. The low has pinched off from the remainder of the trough which extends ENE from the SE Bahamas to another upper-level low centered NE of Puerto Rico near 26N61W. The low and trough continue to remain weak and have little associated convection. A weak surface trough related to the upper feature is located just E of the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough appears to be decoupling and departing the Caribbean. The only significant convection over the Caribbean is taking place over the far SW Caribbean between Panama and Nicaragua just to the N of the monsoon trough which passes to the S over the Eastern Pacific. A persistent ridge extends from E to W to the north of the area in the vicinity of 32N. The ridge is generating fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, resulting in 8 to 12 ft seas between Colombia and Jamaica. These winds will continue through Sunday, then subside Sunday night and Monday as the ridge to the N weakens in response to low pressure moving E over the Eastern United States. Trade winds are moderate to fresh over the remainder of the Caribbean. Farther east, recent altimeter satellite passes indicated seas ranging between 6 and 8 ft in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface ridge reaches from 1024 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda to the Carolinas. A surface trough has developed NE of Puerto Rico and it extends NNE from 20N60W to 26N58W. The trough is expected to weaken and drift slowly WSW through Sunday. The ridge will remain in place through early next week and generally produce gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes north of 22N and moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N. The strongest winds will continue near the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sunday, then subside as the high to the N weakens. A weak cold front over the SE United States will approach the northeast Florida coast early next week, but will have little impact on winds or seas. A stronger cold front will move E from Florida on Thursday and Friday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.