000 AGXX40 KNHC 191806 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... The northern portion of a surface trough is moving into the south central Gulf of Mexico this morning. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are noted between the trough and high pressure centered over the Carolinas. Winds may pulse to 20 to 25 kt briefly late today and overnight in the Straits of Florida. Similarly strong easterly winds will pulse in a small area off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight. Moderate to fresh southeast return flow over the northwest Gulf will diminish through Saturday as east to west oriented ridging across the northern Gulf coast weakens as the trough migrates into the western Gulf before dissipating late Saturday. A front will approach the Texas coast early Sunday, and drift eastward across the northern Gulf through early Monday before stalling and dissipating Tuesday. This will maintain a fairly weak pressure pattern across the Gulf early next week, with the possible exception of the far northeast Gulf on Tuesday ahead of the front. Looking ahead, a second front will move into the northwest Gulf by mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A cutoff upper low remains anchored over Grand Cayman, with a sharp trough reaching toward the Gulf of Honduras. While this feature has been responsible for large areas of strong thunderstorms across the north central Caribbean over the past several days, it appears to be much weaker this morning with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms south of Cuba and west of Jamaica. Slightly stronger and more extensive convection is evident farther south over the southwest Caribbean related in part to a tropical wave between Grand Cayman and western Panama. A surface trough related to the upper feature appears to be decoupling and moving west of the area, approaching the Yucatan peninsula. Persistent ridging north of the area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean, resulting in 8 to 12 ft seas between Colombia and Jamaica. These winds will persist through the forecast period, and spread westward into the northwest Caribbean through Sunday. Farther east, recent altimeter satellite passes indicated seas area reaching 7 ft mostly likely in easterly swell in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface ridge reaches from 1024 mb high pressure centered over Bermuda to the Carolina coast. A surface trough that was over the Cay Sal area of the Bahamas has exited to the west of the area. The ridge will remain in place through early next week supporting generally gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes north of 22N and moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N, with the strongest winds near the approaches to the Windward Passage. A weak cold front over the SE United States will approach the northeast Florida coast early next week, but will have little impact on winds or seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.