000 AGXX40 KNHC 190746 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 346 AM EDT Fri May 19 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic from near Bermuda to the Carolinas, then across the Gulf coast states to central Texas. Moderate to fresh ESE to SE flow dominates the basin, except winds are locally strong through the Straits of Florida. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across most of the Gulf, except up to 7 ft near the Texas Coastal Bend and 8 ft in the Straits of Florida, and 2 to 4 ft in the northeast Gulf. Winds will pulse locally to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan peninsula each evening as the thermal trough follows climatology and develops each afternoon just inland and heads into the Bay of Campeche. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong through the Straits of Florida during the next couple of evenings, as a weakening surface trough moves across Florida into the eastern Gulf. Otherwise, ridging will hold just north of the area through the weekend with moderate to fresh east to southeast flow prevailing. Fresh SE winds over the NW Gulf will diminish by late Sunday as a weak cold front moves off the Texas coast. The front will skim eastward along the N Gulf Coast through early Monday, then lift north on Tuesday. An unusually strong cold front for this time of year will enter the Gulf on Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A sharp upper trough reaches SW from the northern Bahamas over central Cuba to NE Honduras. A cutoff low has formed in the SW section of the trough over the Caribbean. Animated water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data both suggest that the entire trough is weakening despite the formation of the cutoff low. Accordingly, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over Caribbean has decreased as the upper-level dynamics taper off. Only a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms was evident S of Cuba near 21N80W. A tight gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the deep-layer trough is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. Satellite derived wind data showed winds of near gale force over the Gulf of Venezuela as altimetry depicted corresponding seas of 8 ft. The ridge will build north of the eastern Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic west of 55W as the trough moves slowly west and weakens through Sunday. These configuration will allow the area of fresh to strong winds to expand W over the southern Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds and seas to 11 ft will affect the area between Colombia and Jamaica through Sunday. Meanwhile, northeast to east swell will propagate into the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands and maintain seas between 7 and 8 feet through Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface trough extends from western Cuba into the NW Caribbean. Ridging extends W from 32N50W to pass just to the N of the forecast area into the Carolinas. Satellite-derived wind data indicated fresh to locally strong winds are blowing just north of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast flow is observed elsewhere. The pressure gradient will relax a little by Saturday as the trough moves W and weakens. A weak cold front over the SE United States will approach the northeast Florida coast by early next week, but will have little impact on winds or seas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.