000 AGXX40 KNHC 171755 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 155 PM EDT Wed May 17 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends along the U.S. Gulf coast states anchored by a surface high in the Atlantic. Fresh southerly flow and seas to 8 ft are noted over the northwest Gulf, between the ridge and low pressure over south Texas. Similarly, fresh east flow is noted across the Straits of Florida, enhanced by a tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough over the Bahamas. Seas are up to at least 9 ft, enhanced in part due to the easterly flow against the eastward moving Florida Current. Winds will diminish through tonight as the pressure gradient weakens ahead of the advancing trough. Winds will pulse locally to fresh to strong northwest of the Yucatan peninsula each evening with the typical thermal trough developing each afternoon just inland. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong through the Straits of Florida during the next couple of evenings, as a weakening surface trough moves across Florida into the eastern Gulf. Otherwise, ridging will hold just north of the area through the next several days with moderate to fresh east to southeast prevailing into Sunday. Southerly flow over the northwest Gulf will diminish by late Sunday as a weak cold front will move off the Texas coast, but then quickly stalls and shifts north again through Monday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A sharp upper trough reaching from the northern Bahamas to Honduras is supporting a broad area of showers and thunderstorms across the north central Caribbean, mainly southwest of southern Haiti and southeast of Jamaica. An associated surface trough reaches from the central Bahamas to off eastern Honduras. A tight gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the trough is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across mainly the north central Caribbean. The ridge will build north of the eastern Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic west of 55W, as the trough will moves slowly west through Sat. This will be in phase with the westward exit of a weak tropical wave farther south in the deep tropics. These shifts will allow the area of fresh to strong winds to expand into the southern Caribbean and slightly more west, with fresh to strong trade winds and seas to 9 ft between Colombia and Jamaica by Friday. Meanwhile northeast to east swell to 8 ft will propagate into the tropical north Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands by Friday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An earlier scatterometer image indicated fresh to strong east winds across the waters south of 22N and west of 70W, including the waters around the Turks and Caicos, southern Bahamas, and the approaches to the Windward Passage. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and a trough moving westward into the Cay Sal area and Florida Straits. The gradient will relax a little by Saturday after the troughs moves well west of the region. A weak cold front over the southeast U.S. will approach the northeast Florida coast by early next week, with little impact on winds or seas anticipated so far. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.