000 AGXX40 KNHC 160615 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 215 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... The frontal boundary that was stalled in the SE Gulf yesterday has mostly dissipated, except for a small portion extending from the SW N Atlantic across S Florida to near the Dry Tortugas. This portion will eventually dissipate later this morning. A weak surface trough which developed over the western Florida peninsula has pushed into the E Gulf and it will dissipate in the next few hours. Otherwise, ridging extends along the U.S. Gulf coast states. Light to moderate easterly winds are E of 90W, and moderate to fresh return flow is W of 90W. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across most of the Gulf, except 4 to 6 ft W of 95W where the return flow is the strongest. The pressure gradient will increase as elongated troughing inland over central Texas deepens. As a result, return flow will increase in the NW Gulf this evening through the overnight hours, reaching fresh to strong late tonight offshore of Texas, with seas building to 7 to 9 ft. The gradient will then weaken slightly by Wednesday afternoon allowing the strong winds to diminish slightly. Moderate to fresh E to SE flow will then dominate the basin Wednesday night through the end of the week, except locally and occasionally strong through the Straits of Florida and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elongated surface troughing will move from the NW Caribbean into the SE and eventually central Gulf Friday night through Saturday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A surface trough extends from near central Cuba to offshore of eastern Nicaragua. A middle to upper level trough is deepening just to the NW of the surface feature, with active convection present across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, extending eastward across the approach to the Windward Passage. The northern extent of a tropical wave is exiting near the west coast of Colombia, but is losing definition, while another tropical wave is moving across central Venezuela. Moderate to fresh E to SE flow prevails across the area N of 11N and E of the trough axis along with 4 to 7 ft seas, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere along with 2 to 4 ft seas. Winds and seas may be higher though near the area of deep convection today. The trough is forecast to linger across the same general area through the majority of the week before moving W to NW Friday through early Saturday. Winds to the E of the trough are forecast to increase to fresh to strong later today through the end of the forecast period, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere. Seas will build to 7 to 9 ft within the area of increasing winds, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. In the Tropical N Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas will prevail through the next several days. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... An old frontal boundary is becoming diffuse from near 30N65W to 27N73W, continuing W and SW as a weakening warm front. High pressure ridging extends along 26N to the E of the front, with new high pressure building in from the NW to the W of the front. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the offshore waters basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft W of 70W, except 2 ft or less W of the Bahamas, and 4 to 7 ft E of 70W. Ample moisture is present SE of the front with clusters of scattered thunderstorms. This activity will likely continue through the day. The ridging both NW and SE of the front will shift ENE to NE through Wednesday while the front lays down along 27N while dissipating. Moderate to fresh easterly flow will prevail once this occurs, except increasing to fresh to strong from N of Hispaniola to across the Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida as surface troughing extends to the N and NE from the Caribbean Sea. The troughing will gradually shift W and NW by the end of the week with moderate to fresh E to SE flow prevailing basin-wide thereafter. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.