000 AGXX40 KNHC 151819 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 219 PM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to N of the Yucatan Peninsula NEAR 23N97W, with high pressure centered over the SE U.S. in the wake of the front. Satellite imagery shows mainly low clouds invof frontal boundary but lightning data shows isolated trw near front, as SWly flow aloft continues to enhance vertical development from SE gulf through NW Bahamas. Mainly light to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin with peak seas 3-4 ft across W coastal portions from near 21N to SE Texas coastal waters, downstream of moderate SE fetch. No change in forecast reasoning. The front will wash out and lose definition through the evening hours. The high will gradually shift eastward into the Atlantic along 33N through mid- week and combine with deepening low pres across Great Plains to produce increasing return flow, fresh to strong in the NW Gulf by late Tuesday night, and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Moderate to fresh E to SE flow will then prevail across the basin Wednesday afternoon through early Friday. Winds offshore of the NW Yucatan Peninsula will increase to fresh to strong during the evening hours starting on Wednesday evening as stronger thermal troughing develops inland. GFS and EC Model guidance in good agreement indicating broad and elongated surface troughing moving from the NW Caribbean into the SE Gulf Friday night into Saturday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Weakening high pressure ridge extends nearly E to W along 27N from a 1022 mb high in central Atlc. A surface trough continues S of 20N along about 81W-82W. Mainly light to moderate winds are on either side of the trough S of 16N, while overnight scat data showed fresh SE flow E of trough and N of 16N blowing into clusters of cnvtn occurring SW through W of Jamaica. Cnvtn continues to pulse in this area this morning under influence of jet dynamics. A tropical wave is S of 15N along 75W. Moderate to fresh E to SE trades are E of the wave axis. A low amplitude tropical wave is S of 10N along about 62W. Seas area 1-3 FT across the NW and SW Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic. The tropical wave moving toward the western Caribbean become absorbed within the surface trough and associated deep layered troughing through mid-week, lingering between 80W and 82W through early Thursday. The troughing is then forecast to gradually move to the NW and into the SE Gulf of Mexico at the end of the week and into the weekend, as central Atlantic ridging builds to the W and SW. Model guidance indicates winds increasing to fresh to locally strong E of the W Carib trough Wednesday through Saturday with seas reaching 6-9 ft central portions by Wed. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weak frontal boundary has stalled from the Fl Keys ENE across the NW Bahamas to an Ewd moving cold front that reaches to very near Bermuda. Jet energy in the SW flow ahead of mid-upper trof across Gulf of Mexico and ENE into W Atlc continues to provide instability invof the frontal boundary for pulsing clusters of cnvtn, including shallow cnvtn across the SE Gulf. Ample moisture across the Bahamas and SE of the boundary will provide source for continued cnvtn next 24 hours. Weak ridging both NW and SE of the fronts will shift ENE to NE through Wed to bring a return to moderate to fresh NE to E winds to much of area. Broad inverted troughing over the W central and NW Caribbean expected to shift slowly WNW across Cuba and tights the pressure gradient to produce fresh to strong winds S of 27N into the upcoming weekend. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.