000 AGXX40 KNHC 150712 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 312 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula with high pressure ridging in the wake of the front. Mainly light and gentle winds and seas of 2 ft or less blanket the waters N of 22N E of 94W. Moderate E to SE flow and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere due to a tighter pressure gradient between low pressure troughing over western Texas and the ridging. The front will continue to wash out and lose definition through the morning hours. The ridging will gradually shift eastward into the Atlantic through mid-week. This will allow for return flow to increase to fresh to strong in the NW Gulf by late Tuesday night, and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Moderate to fresh E to SE flow will then prevail across the basin Wednesday afternoon through early Friday. Winds offshore of the NW Yucatan Peninsula will increase to fresh to strong during the evening hours starting on Wednesday evening as stronger thermal troughing develops inland. Model guidance indicates broad and elongated surface troughing moving from the NW Caribbean into the SE Gulf Friday night into Saturday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure ridging extends from E to W just N of the basin. A surface trough has developed S of 20N along 82W. Mainly light to moderate winds are on either side of the trough W of 74W, except near an area of deep convection SW of Jamaica where winds and seas are locally higher. A tropical wave is S of 15N along 74W. Moderate to fresh E to SE trades are E of the wave axis. A low amplitude tropical wave is S of 10N in the Tropical N Atlantic. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 FT across the NW and SW Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere, except 5 to 7 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic. The tropical wave moving toward the western Caribbean will merge with the surface trough through mid-week, lingering between 80W and 82W through early Thursday. The troughing is then forecast to gradually move to the NW and into the SE Gulf of Mexico at the end of the week and into the weekend, as central Atlantic ridging builds to the S and SW. Model guidance indicates winds increasing to fresh to locally strong E of the troughing Wednesday through Saturday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weak cold front extends from about 90 nm W of Bermuda to near the northern Bahamas, where the remainder has stalled and continues to the Florida Keys. High pressure ridging extends along 26N ahead of the front from 1021 mb high pressure E of the offshore waters near 25N53W. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate across the basin, except locally fresh N of Hispaniola. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft NE and E of the Bahamas, and 2 ft or less elsewhere. The northern portion of the front will continue eastward through Tuesday with high pressure building down from the Carolinas in the wake of the front. The high will then continue to shift E and NE of the area Wednesday through Friday as broad low pressure or troughing over the Caribbean tightens the pressure gradient S of 27N into the upcoming weekend. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.