000 AGXX40 KNHC 141800 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Ft Myers Florida near 26N82W to 24N85W, then continues as a stationary front to just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at 22N90W to end over the Bay of Campeche near 21N94W. Weak high pressure ridging southward from the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys is generating light to moderate winds behind the front and W of 90W. Behind the front E of 90W, winds are moderate to locally fresh. Moderate SW winds are occurring ahead of the front over the extreme SE Gulf. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in the Bay of Campeche and 2 to 4 feet across the remainder of the basin. Seas are highest in the NE Gulf near the Florida Big Bend. The front has already begun to stall and will move little from its current position tonight. The front is expected to dissipate by Monday night. Weak high pressure ridging southward over the Gulf in the wake of the front will gradually shift eastward into the Atlantic on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will set up moderate to fresh return flow over the Western Gulf. The return flow could become strong Wednesday through Friday ahead of another frontal boundary pushing into the U.S. Southern Plains. The front is not forecast to reach the Gulf basin as a high pressure ridge to the N of the Gulf remains in place. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Weak high pressure centered NE of Puerto Rico near 24N60W is maintaining moderate E to SE trades over the majority of the Caribbean. Light and variable winds are found over the far SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough axis which extends into the area from the Pacific between 10N and 11N. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the SW Caribbean and S of Cuba. Moderate trades extend across the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the E of the Windward Islands, and similar conditions will prevail in the SE and S central Caribbean through mid-week. Meanwhile, long period N to NE swell that propagated into the Tropical N Atlantic from the N have decayed, but more long period swell being generated by a cold front to the N could bring combined seas back above 8 ft Tuesday night and Wednesday. A tropical wave is moving across the Central Caribbean along 70W. Model guidance suggests that this wave will merge with broad low pressure troughing Tuesday through Thursday. Models are in general agreement that the trough will remain broad but will tighten the pressure gradient over the N Central Caribbean and SE Bahamas enough to produce advisory conditions Wednesday through Friday. Two low amplitude tropical waves are moving W toward the Caribbean from 50W and 36W, respectively. The first wave is expected to lose identity over Northern South America. The second wave is not expected to reach the Caribbean until Thursday night or Friday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure ridging extends from the W Atlc over the Southern Bahamas and Western Cuba. A cold front is stalling from N of Bermuda to Southern Florida. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is present along and up to 120 nm SE of the front between 31N and Florida. Latest satellite-derived wind data and ship observations indicate a narrow band of fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front and N of 30N. Corresponding seas in this area are 6 to 8 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh return flow continues over the forecast waters, along with 4 to 6 ft seas E of the Bahamas, with seas 2 ft or less W of the Bahamas. The front will slowly move eastward and extend from near Bermuda to just N of the northern Bahamas by noon Monday, then from 31N61W to 25N68W by noon Tuesday before shifting E of 65W by Tuesday night. Winds behind the front will be primarily gentle as weak high pressure behind the front passes to the N and NE of the Bahamas through mid week. The high will then shift NE of the area Wednesday through Friday as broad low pressure or troughing over the Caribbean tightens the pressure gradient S of 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.