000 AGXX40 KNHC 140708 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 308 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Peninsula near 29N83W to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N90W. Weak high pressure ridging southward from the middle U.S. Mississippi Valley is only generating light to moderate winds behind the front. Only moderate SW winds are occurring ahead of the front in the SE Gulf. Seas are 2 ft or less across the basin, except 3 to 5 FT in the NE Gulf in SW swell. The cold front will slow as it continues to the SE through morning with the front stalling from near Florida Bay to the northern Yucatan peninsula through the afternoon, then will gradually wash out through early Monday. Weak high pressure in the wake of the front will gradually shift eastward into the Atlantic on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will set up moderate to fresh return flow over the Western Gulf. The return flow could become strong by late Thursday ahead of another frontal boundary pushing into the U.S. Southern Plains. The front is not forecast to reach the Gulf basin with high pressure ridging remaining in place. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Weak high pressure centered NE of Puerto Rico near 23N63W is maintaining moderate E to SE trades over the majority of the Caribbean, except light and variable winds are found over the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough axis which extends into the area from the Pacific along 11N. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 3 ft N of 18N and S of Cuba. A tropical wave is moving across the SE Caribbean along 66W. A slightly tighter pressure gradient is evident in the wake of this system. Moderate to locally fresh trades extend across the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the E of the Windward Islands, and similar conditions will setup in the SE and S central Caribbean through mid-week in the wake of the tropical wave. Meanwhile, long period N to NE swell that propagated into the Tropical N Atlantic from the N are decaying, but more long period swell being generated by a cold front to the N could bring combined seas back above 8 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another low-amplitude tropical wave is moving W from Africa but will not arrive over the Tropical N Atlc until Thursday. Model guidance suggests that the westernmost wave may merge with broad low pressure troughing Tuesday through Thursday. Models remain in considerable disagreement with respect to the configuration of the resulting trough and the strength of the associated winds and seas over the N Central Caribbean during this time frame. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure ridging extends along roughly 25N/26N from the E. A cold front is in the process of exiting the northern Florida Atlantic coast. Active convection is present across NW portions of the offshore waters basin. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front in zone AMZ111, however these winds are likely contaminated from the convective areas. Otherwise, moderate to fresh return flow blankets the waters, along with 4 to 6 ft seas E of the Bahamas, with seas 2 ft or less W of the Bahamas. The front will slowly trek eastward extending from near Bermuda to just N of the northern Bahamas by early Monday, then from 29N65W to 26N70W by early Tuesday before shifting E of 65W by Tuesday night. Winds behind the front will be mainly gentle as weak high pressure passes to the N and NE of the Bahamas through the middle of the week. The high will shift NE of the area towards the end of the week as broad low pressure or troughing over the Caribbean tightens the pressure gradient S of 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.