000 AGXX40 KNHC 131804 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A late season cold front bisects the Gulf from near Pensacola Florida to 26N90W to Tampico Mexico. Weak high pressure ridging southward from the Southern plains is only generating light to moderate winds behind the front. High pres ridges W toward the front from the Atlc through the Florida Straits. N of the ridge axis over the Gulf moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds prevail. To the S of the ridge axis a weak pressure gradient is in place near the Yucatan and Bay of Campeche where winds are light. Behind the front and N of 27N seas range between 3 and 6 ft. Elsewhere over the Gulf seas are 1 to 3 ft. The cold front will continue SE tonight, but it is already beginning to slow down. The southern portion of the front will stall over the SW Gulf tonight and the northern portion will stall over Florida by Monday. Both portions of the front will weaken by Monday night. Weak high pressure will follow over the Gulf in the wake of the front on Sunday and Monday, then shift eastward into the Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will set up moderate to fresh return flow over the Western Gulf. The return flow could become strong by late Thursday ahead of yet another frontal boundary pushing into the U.S. Southern Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Weak high pressure centered N of Puerto Rico near 22N65W is maintaining moderate E to SE trades over the majority of the Caribbean, except light and variable winds are found over the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough axis which extends into the area from the Pacific along 11N. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 3 ft N of 18N and S of Cuba, and 3 to 5 ft W of 85W. A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean along 62W. A slightly higher pressure gradient is evident in the wake of this system. Moderate to locally fresh trades extend across the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the E of the Windward Islands. As the wave continues W into the Caribbean, the gradient over the Tropical N Atlantic will lessen and allow winds and seas to continue slowly subsiding. Long period N to NE swell that propagated into this area from the N are decaying, but more long period swell being generated by a cold front to the N could bring combined seas back above 8 ft by Wednesday morning. Another low- amplitude tropical wave is moving W from Africa but will not arrive over the Tropical N Atlc until Thursday. Model guidance suggests that the westernmost wave may merge with broad low pressure troughing Tuesday through Thursday, although models remain in considerable disagreement with respect to the configuration of the resulting trough and the strength of the associated winds and seas over the N Central Caribbean during this time frame. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extends from E of the area near 31N51W to 26N60W to 27N66W continues as a stationary front to near 31N72W. Active convection is displaced about 300 nm ahead of the front to the E of a prefrontal trough. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate fresh to strong SW winds continue ahead of the front and N of 26N, but the front continues moving E away from the area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are found beneath weak high pres ridging to the E of 70W. W of 70W moderate to fresh SW winds are blowing over the Northern Bahamas and E of Florida ahead of the next cold front that is approaching the SE coast of the United States. This front looks weaker than the last one so S to SW winds are only expected to increase to fresh to strong N of 30N late tonight through Sunday as this front moves across the northern waters. Seas could touch 8 ft along 31N. Winds behind the front will be mainly gentle as weak high pressure passes to the N and NE of the Bahamas through the middle of the week. The high will shift NE of the area towards the end of the week as broad low pressure or troughing over the Caribbean tightens the pressure gradient S of 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.