000 AGXX40 KNHC 130705 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 305 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging that is over the Gulf E of 90W is retreating as a cold front extending from 30N90W to NE Mexico shifts eastward. Light to moderate flow is noted across the majority of the Gulf on either side of the front, except in the NE Gulf ahead of the front where S-SW moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas are mainly 1 to 3 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the N central and NE Gulf. The cold front will continue SE today. The southern portion of the front will stall over the SW Gulf and the northern portion will stall over Florida. Both portions of the front will weaken by Monday. High pressure will then build over the Gulf in the wake of the front on Sunday and Monday, then shift eastward into the Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will set up return flow over the Western Gulf. The return flow could become strong by late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of yet another frontal boundary pushing into the U.S. Southern Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure centered E of the Bahamas near 23N70W is maintaining moderate E to SE trades over the majority of the Caribbean, except moderate S to SW winds are found in the SW Caribbean where the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the area along 11N. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 3 ft N of 18N E of 85W, and 3 to 5 ft W of 85W. A tropical wave has moved into the E Caribbean along 65W. The tropical wave has enhanced the pressure gradient slightly in its wake with moderate to locally fresh trades extending across the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the E of the Windward Islands. As the wave shifts W into the Caribbean, the gradient over the Tropical N Atlantic will lessen and allow winds and seas to subside slightly. Long period N to NE swell is decaying with seas now less than 8 ft. Another low-amplitude tropical wave will move through the Tropical N Atlantic waters this weekend, and then the Caribbean thereafter. Model guidance suggests that both waves may merge with broad low pressure troughing Tuesday through mid-week, although disagreement with respect to the strength of associated winds and seas remains this far out in time. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extends from E of the area near 31N56W to 27.5N60W to 27N65W continues as a stationary front to near 31N73W. Active convection N of 27N ahead of the front has shifted to the E of 65W. Fresh to strong SW winds that were found ahead of the front have also shifted E of the area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are found across the SW N Atlantic basin, except moderate to fresh SW winds are located offshore of northern Florida ahead of a cold front that is W of the area. The southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong N of 30N late tonight through Sunday as the next front moves across the northern waters while seas will also build to 8 ft. Winds behind the front will be mainly gentle as weak high pressure passes to the N and NE of the Bahamas through the middle of the week. The high will shift NE of the area towards the end of the week as broad low pressure or troughing in the Caribbean drifts to the NW enhancing the pressure gradient S of 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.