000 AGXX40 KNHC 120700 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM EDT Fri May 12 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb high centered over the NE Gulf is maintaining light to moderate E to SE winds over the majority of the Gulf. A frontal boundary is situated to the NW of the Gulf over Texas. A thermal trough which developed over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening has pushed into the SW Gulf and is in the process of dissipating. Fresh E winds in the wake of the trough are diminishing. The front over Texas will be weakening ridging out ahead of it and will reduce the pressure gradient in this area. The front over Texas will be moving southeastward over the Northern Gulf later today through Sunday. The southern portion of the front will stall over the SE Gulf where it will weaken into early next week. High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the front on Sunday and Monday, then shift eastward into the Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday and set up return flow over the Western Gulf. The return flow could become Strong by Thursday ahead of yet another frontal boundary pushing into the Southern Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure centered just east of the Bahamas is maintaining moderate E to NE trades over the Caribbean. A surface trough extending from the Atlantic into the NE Caribbean continues to generate showers and thunderstorms over the Virgin Islands eastward. A tropical wave is approaching the Southern Windward Islands from the vicinity of 59W. The surface trough over the NE Caribbean will be weakening during the next couple of days as the upper-level trough supporting it lifts out to the NE. The tropical wave is enhancing the pressure gradient over the Tropical Atlantic to the E of the Windward islands. As the wave shifts W, the gradient over the Tropical N Atlantic will lessen and allow winds and seas to subside. However, long period N to NE swell will continue to maintain combined seas in the 7-9 ft in this area through this evening. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stalled frontal boundary well to the E of the Bahamas from 31N54W to 22N63W will begin to move E as a cold front N of 31N dives southward through the day. Strong SW winds can be expected N of 27N and E of 70W ahead of the front as it progresses southeastward through Saturday. NW swell generated on the N side of the front will cause combined seas to build to 12 feet along 31N as the front moves out of the area. Another boundary will be heading eastward very slowly across the northern waters on Saturday night through Monday night. Initially SW winds ahead of the front and N of 30N will be fresh to strong beginning Saturday afternoon through Sunday, then will weaken thereafter, while winds behind the front will be mainly gentle. Otherwise, weak high pressure centered E of the Bahamas will maintain light to moderate SE winds over the Bahamas, and gentle E to SE winds over the waters S of 23N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.