000 AGXX40 KNHC 110759 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 359 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1019 mb located over the NE Gulf remains the main weather feature controlling the weather regime across the Gulf waters. The latest scatterometer passes along with current observations from buoys and oil platforms reveal mostly moderate anticyclonic flow over Gulf, with the exception over the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds are noted around the immediate high center, and over the NW Gulf where moderate to fresh winds are seen. Latest buoy and altimeter data show relatively low seas in the range of 1 to 3 ft over the eastern half of the Gulf waters, and 3 to 5 ft seas over the western half of the area with the exception of 5 to 6 ft over the NW Gulf where moderate to fresh winds are present, and over the eastern part of the Bay of Campeche due to the presence of fresh to strong winds associated with a thermal trough. This feature will move offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and across the SW Gulf at night and into the morning hours through Friday. A surge of fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas in the 5 to 6 ft range will accompany this trough. The high pressure over the NE Gulf will develop into a ridge today, and move southeastward reaching inland central Florida early on Friday. A weak cold front is expected to move offshore the Texas coast on Friday morning. It will reach a position from near Apalachicola Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Saturday afternoon followed by gentle to moderate northerly winds. By early on Sunday, it will extend from southwest Florida to the southeast Gulf waters where it is expected to become stationary to just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front will lose its upper support and dissipate through Sunday, with the remnants retreating back to the west across the SW Gulf as a weakening trough into Monday. Weak high pressure will build in behind the front, with the associated light gradient allowing for only relatively light to gentle winds and low seas throughout. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean per latest scatterometer data and ship and buoy observations. Both recent altimeter data and current buoy observations report seas in the 3 to 5 ft across just about the entire basin, with the exception of lower seas of 1 to 3 ft within 50 nm of the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, and also within 50 nm of the coast of Hispaniola. Other seas of 1 to 3 ft are within 60 nm of the coasts of Cuba and Puerto Rico. High pressure north of area and low pressure near the coast of Colombia associated with the monsoon trough will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean, and Tropical N Atlantic forecast waters during the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast winds through and near the vicinity of the Windward Passage will diminish to fresh winds early this morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be quite evident over much of the SW Caribbean Sea through the period. A set of primarily northeast swell has propagated into the eastern sections of the northern Tropical N Atlantic zones, with the resultant combined wave heights maxing out to 8 ft. This set of swell will be reinforced by the gradient associated with a rather active tropical wave near 55W south of 13N that will move across the southern portions of the Tropical N Atlantic through tonight. The gradient with this wave will bring fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds to those waters along with seas up to 9 ft. These seas will subside on Friday, but seas there will once again build to 8 ft during Friday and into Saturday as another surge of fresh to locally strong east to southeast moves over that same area of the Tropical N Atlantic zones. These seas subside on Saturday as the tropical wave weakens over the eastern Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A 1019 mb high pressure center analyzed near 26N77W at 06Z dominates the basin, while a surface trough is analyzed from 24N62W southwest to Puerto Rico. Current buoy and ship observations show generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the forecast waters, with the exception of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds over the far southern waters west of about 69W and fresh to strong northeast winds over the approaches to the Windward passage. Winds over the far northern waters east of 75W have decreased during the past few hours. The buoys along with recent altimeter passes reveal seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft northeast and east of the Bahamas, and lower seas of 1 to 3 ft west of the Bahamas as well as north of the Bahamas west of 78W. The surface trough will shift slightly east today, and weaken through Saturday with no significant impacts on winds and seas. A couple of pretty strong cold fronts for this time of year are in store to sweep across the far northern waters during the next few days. The first cold front will move across the northeast waters of zone AMZ113 tonight into Friday, and across zone AMZ115 on Friday and Friday night preceded by fresh to strong southwest winds and seas building to the range of 7 to 10 ft. Mainly fresh northwest winds will follow in behind the front, with seas of around 6 to 8 ft. The second cold front has been consistently forecast by the models to move across the far northwest waters on Saturday evening, and to also be preceded by strong southwest winds and building seas. This front will quickly reach from 31N75W to near West Palm Beach early Sunday, and from near Bermuda to to near 27N75W and weakening stationary to near West Palm Beach Sunday night. The strong southwest winds ahead of it are expected to diminish to mainly fresh winds over the northeast portion of zone AMZ115 at that time, with seas of about 6 to 8 ft. On Monday, weak high pressure again takes hold of the entire basin providing for generally light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft northeast and east of the Bahamas, with gradually subsiding seas of 6 to 8 ft due to lingering northwest swell over the northeast section of zone AMZ115. Seas west of the Bahamas, and north of the NW Bahamas will remain at 1 to 3 ft on Monday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.