000 AGXX40 KNHC 081808 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 208 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1020 mb located over the NE Gulf near 28N87W dominates the region, producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the forecast waters. Seas have lowered even some more in the eastern Gulf, where recent altimeter data and buoy indicate seas there in the range of 1 to 2 ft. Seas are 2 to 3 ft over the central Gulf and 3 to 4 ft in the western Gulf, mainly from 20N to 28N west of 94W. The high pressure center is forecast to remain over the NE Gulf waters through the forecast period allowing for moderate to fresh southeast winds to persist over the western Gulf through Thursday. Fair conditions are expected to prevail over the basin under the influence of the high pressure. A thermal trough will move offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and across the SW Gulf at night and into the morning hours. A surge of fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas in the 6 to 7 ft range will accompany this trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The frontal boundary, that moved across the NW Caribbean during the previous days, has dissipated but abundant cloudiness are still noted over the central Caribbean. This activity is not as widespread as yesterday. It will continue to push eastward the rest of today while decreasing. A surface trough is analyzed off Nicaragua and Costa Rica and extends from 15N81W to 12N82W to 9.5N82W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are related to this trough, forecast to remain nearly stationary through midweek with the associated convective activity. The most recent scatterometer pass showed the wind shift associated with this trough. A weak low pressure of 1008 mb, along the monsoon trough, will also persist near the southern end of the trough axis. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean per scatterometer data and ship and buoy observations. Seas are generally under 6 ft across the entire basin. High pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure near the coast of Colombia associated with the monsoon trough will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean, and Tropical N Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast period. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in northeast swell dominate the majority of the Tropical N Atlantic zones, however, wave model guidance suggests that the next set of long-period northeast swell will arrive into the eastern sections of the Tropical N Atlantic on Thursday and persist through Friday night with resultant combined wave heights maxing out to around 8 to 9 ft. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front extends from 31N65W to eastern Cuba. A wide band of cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms is ahead of the front. Mainly gentle to moderate west to northwest winds and seas in the range of 4 to 6 ft are west of the front to the Bahamas. Seas of 1 to 3 ft are confined to west of the Bahamas, and north of 27N west of 78W. East of the front, south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 kt are noted north of 25N, and east to southeast 10 to 15 kt winds are south of 25N east of the front. Seas are 4 to 5 ft east and southeast of the front. Farther west, a frontal trough is over the NW waters and stretches from 31N73W to 29N81W. The southern parts of the stationary front will weaken today and dissipate through Tuesday. A couple of ship observations along with a partial ASCAT pass indicate that a weak trough has formed to the southeast of the front and extends from 23N71W to Hispaniola near 18N71W. This trough will shift eastward reaching the Mona Passage on Tuesday morning, and the US/UK Virgin Islands on Wednesday morning where it will possible stall through Thursday morning. Weak high pressure will build across the area in the wake of the aforementioned front through Wednesday night. The high pressure will become more of a ridge axis roughly along 26N/27N on Thursday as it is forced south-southeastward through Friday in response to a couple of fronts that brush the far northern waters. These fronts will be preceded by moderate to fresh southwest to west winds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Seas elsewhere will change little through the forecast period. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.