000 AGXX40 KNHC 061805 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1017 mb located over the NW Gulf dominates the region. A lingering tight pressure gradient over the northeast Gulf waters is keeping fresh northwest winds there with seas of 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, over the eastern Gulf waters moderate to locally fresh winds are noted. These winds will diminish further during the afternoon and evening, with seas expected to subside to around 3 to 4 ft...except 4 to 5 ft in the far SE Gulf. The high pressure is forecast to change little through tonight, then begin to shift eastward to the northeast Gulf waters Sunday and into early next week allowing for moderate to fresh southeast winds to develop over the western Gulf through the middle of the next week. Fair conditions are expected to prevail over the basin under the control of the high pressure. A thermal trough will begin to move offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and move across the southwest Gulf at night and into the morning hours beginning on Sunday accompanied by fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The recent Gulf of Mexico strong cold front now extends from central Cuba to 19N83W, where it becomes stationary to the Gulf of Honduras. This late season cold front will stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras early this afternoon, then gradually dissipate through Sunday. Moderate to fresh northerly winds in the wake of the front will diminish to moderate winds early this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to persist along and ahead of the boundary until it dissipates. Northwest swell from the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to propagate into the northwestern Caribbean section through tonight keeping seas in the 4 to 5 ft range before lowering to 3 to 4 ft tonight. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail over the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades are noted per scatterometer data over the eastern Caribean. Seas are generally under 6 ft across the basin. High pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure near the coast of Colombia will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean, and Tropical N Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast period. Seas of 6-7 ft in NE swell will persist over much of the Tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period. Additional pulses of NE swell will reach the region Tuesday through Wednesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extends from 31N74W to 21N78W. Strong W-NW winds follow the front with frequent gusts to gale force and seas of 8-10 ft. Fresh to strong southerly flow is also ahead of the front mainly N of 27N. A recent scatterometer pass shows W-NW of 25 to 30 kt, with a few wind barbs of 35 kt, N of 27N and west of the front. A band of showers and thunderstorms persists ahead of this late season cold front. Winds and seas could be higher and visibilities lower in and near the thunderstorms. The front will reach from 31N68W to eastern Cuba early Sunday morning, then will stall and begin to dissipate. Fresh to strong winds ahead and behind the front will persist through tonight. Latest model runs are indicating that another cold front will move across the far northwest waters on Sunday...then weaken as it passes over the far north/central and northeast waters Sunday night through Monday night. Strong westerly winds are expected N of 30N and west of this second front early on Sunday. High pressure will then become centered over the SW N Atlantic from early to the middle of next week. Over the southeastern zones, mainly moderate east to southeast winds with seas 5 to 7 ft will prevail the next several days. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.