000 AGXX40 KNHC 060800 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure has settled in over the western Gulf in the wake of the recent strong cold front. A lingering tight pressure gradient over the northeast Gulf waters is keeping strong northwest winds there, with frequent gusts to gale force as captured by the 0212Z Ascat pass from last night. Seas resulting from these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range, with the highest near 27N84W per buoy 42099 at 27N84W. These winds will diminish later this morning to 15 to 20 kt, however seas will be slow in subsiding with seas expected to near 10 ft around daybreak. Elsewhere, over the eastern Gulf waters fresh to strong northwest winds will continue through early this morning, then diminish to mainly moderate winds, with lingering northwest swell to keep seas up to 8 ft. These winds then diminish further during the afternoon and evening, with seas expected to subside to around 3 to 4 ft. The high pressure is forecast to change little through tonight, then begin to shift eastward to the northeast Gulf waters Sunday and into early next week allowing for moderate to fresh southeast winds to develop over the western Gulf through the middle portion of next week. Fair conditions are expected to prevail over the basin under the control of high pressure. A thermal trough will begin to move offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and move across the southwest Gulf at night and into the morning hours beginning on Sunday accompanied by fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The recent Gulf of Mexico cold front that entered into the northwestern Caribbean during the late afternoon on Friday is analyzed at 06Z along a position from central Cuba to near 19N83W, where it becomes stationary to the Gulf of Honduras and southern Belize. This late season cold front will become stationary from eastern Cuba to Gulf of Honduras this afternoon, and gradually dissipate through Sunday night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds to the north of the front will diminish to moderate winds early this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to persist along and ahead of the boundary until it dissipates. Similar activity over the Gulf of Honduras is due to a shortwave trough that is rounding the base of broad upper troughing that is shifting eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern section of the Caribbean. This activity will move eastward through today. Northwest swell from the eastern Gulf of Mexico will propagate into the northwestern Caribbean section through tonight keeping seas in the 4 to 7 ft range before lowering to 3 to 4 ft tonight. Will account for this in the forecast. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern over the western Caribbean is resulting in gentle winds. High pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure near the coast of Colombia will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean and tropical Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds near the northeastern Colombia coast will diminish to mainly fresh winds this morning. Northeast swell producing seas of 6 to 8 ft over much of the tropical Atlantic will subside to 5 to 7 ft on Sunday, then build to 6 to 8 ft late Tuesday night or early on Monday as another set of northeast swell moves through these waters. However, this next set of swell is expected to have a short life span with seas subsiding again on Wednesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front is analyzed at 06Z along a position from near 31N75W to 25N77W to central Cuba. This front will continue to move southeastward, and reach from near 31N72W to 26N73W to east/central Cuba early this afternoon and from near 31N70W to 25N72W and stationary to eastern Cuba by late tonight. The cold front will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N67W to 26N70W and weakening stationary to eastern Cuba by late Sunday night. The front will lose much of its upper support, and so continued weakening will lead to it dissipating Monday night into Tuesday. Strong southwest to west winds will occur north of 27N behind this front the next two days. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected through early this afternoon to the north of 29N and west of the front where the strongest cold advection is occurring. Numerous thunderstorms will continue within 90 nm east of the front through the weekend. Strong southerly flow is expected mainly north of 28N, within about 400 nm east of the front through tonight. Lines of numerous showers and thunderstorms observed ahead of the front to near 73W will shift eastward through Monday. Lightning data derived from satellite sensors is vividly displaying frequent strokes within the aforementioned shower and thunderstorm activity. The weakening frontal system will allow for winds to decrease below 25 kt on Sunday with seas diminishing below 8 ft Sunday night. Latest model runs are indicating that another cold front may clip the northern waters Sunday and Monday. This front is not expected to be as strong as the current front. High pressure will then become centered over the SW N Atlantic from early to the middle of next week. Over the southeastern zones, mainly moderate east to southeast winds with seas 5 to 7 ft will prevail the next several days. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Gale Warning early today. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... Gale Warning north of 28N for frequent gusts early this morning. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning north of 29N for frequent gusts this morning. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning north of 29N for frequent gusts this morning. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.