000 AGXX40 KNHC 031754 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 PM EDT Wed May 3 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Southerly return flow is on increase across the NW Gulf between the high pressure to the east and a developing area of low pressure over Texas. Currently, some buoy and platform observations indicate winds in the 20-30 kt range. This trend will persist through tonight with seas building to 8 ft. A strong late season cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight, followed by strong to near gale force winds and building seas to 8-10 ft. As this strong cold front enters the Gulf waters, frequent gusts to gale force are expected behind de front tonight into Thursday morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, are also expected ahead of the front, particularly north of 26N. Winds will reach minimal gale force off the Tamaulipas coast by Thursday morning. Then, gale conditions will extend off the Veracruz coast during the late morning into the afternoon hours. The GFS and SREF ensemble output are showing gales off of Tamaulipas and Veracruz on Thursday. The front will sweep the Gulf region reaching the southeast waters by Friday morning, and moving southeast of area by Friday afternoon. High pressure will build over the region Friday and Saturday in the wake of the front, allowing generally gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas Saturday. Southeast return flow will start to increase off the South Texas coast by late Sunday. Winds will also increase off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A series of late season cold front is keeping the subtropical ridge north of the area relatively week and displaced eastward. This is resulting in only moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across most of the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. Local drainage effects off Colombia will allow moderate to fresh trades mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Long period NE swell will reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by Thursday night and spread southward on Friday roughly across the area between 55W and 60W. Seas are forecast to build to 6-7 ft with this swell event during the upcoming weekend. A cold front forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday will reach the Yucatan Channel by early Friday afternoon and extends from Matanzas Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Saturday morning. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft are expected behind the front before stalling and dissipating late Saturday into Sunday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extending from 31N77W to 28N80W will weaken as it shifts east through today, eventually stalling and dissipating from 31N73W to the northwest Bahamas. Generally modest winds and seas will persist through today under the influence of a ridge. A surface trough continues to move westward across the Bahamas and now extends from 26N76W to 21N75W. Visible satellite imagery hints the presence of a weak low along the trough axis. The trough will drift westward while dissipating by late Thursday. Southerly flow will increase over the waters off northeast Florida Thursday as the high pressure slides eastward off the Carolinas ahead of an approaching cold front forecast to enter the area by early Friday morning. Strong westerly flow will follow the front north of 27N through Saturday with seas reaching 8 to 9 ft north of 30N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also likely accompany the front north of 28N. Winds and seas will diminish through Saturday as the front moves east. The front will eventually stall and weaken from roughly Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sunday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.