000 AGXX40 KNHC 021812 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 212 PM EDT Tue May 2 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extending from Tampa Bay Florida to near 25N86W will dissipate through tonight. A weak low pressure of 1012 mb is noted over the SW Gulf and will also dissipate through tonight while moving toward the mexican coast. On Wednesday, expect increasing southerly winds to 20-25 kt across the western half of the Gulf with seas building to 6-7 ft. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds are expected across the eastern half of the Gulf, increasing to 15-20 kt late in the day. A strong cold front for this time of the year is forecast to enter the Gulf waters by Wednesday night, followed by strong to near gale force winds and building seas to 8-10 ft. Fresh to strong southerly winds are aslo expected ahead of the front, particularly over the central Gulf. Winds will further increase to gale force off the Tamaulipas coast and behind the front by early Wednesday morning. Gale conditions will extend off the Veracruz coast during the late morning into the afternoon hours. Currently, the SREF probabilities of gale force winds have incrased to 40-45 percent across the west-central and SW Gulf while the GEFS probabilities reach 20 percent. The GFS model also suggests gale force winds in association with this front. So, the decision was made and a gale warning was issued with the 1200 UTC forecast package. The front will sweep the Gulf region reaching the SE waters by Friday morning, and moving SE of area by late Friday. High pressure will build over the region Friday and Saturday in the wake of the front, allowing generally gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas Saturday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The most recent scatterometer pass indicated an area of fresh to locally strong easterly winds near NW Venezuela and northern Colombia, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are near 8 ft within this area. These marine conditions will persist over the next 24-48 hours. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds will prevail through Friday. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft in the northwest Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere for the most part. The ridge located north of area will weaken and shift eastward ahead of a strong cold front forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico. This cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean by Friday afternoon as a weakening cold front. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft are expected in the wake of the front. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front has entered the SW N Atlantic and extends from 31N79W to 29N81W. This morning, scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong southeast to south winds ahead of the front north of 27N. Currently, mainly moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted based on a recent ASCAT pass and buoy and ship observations. A band of showers and thunderstorms is related to the front. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. The front will stall from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas through Wednesday while dissipating. A surface trough over the SE Bahamas continues to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SE waters. The trough extends from 24N72W to 20N73W. Fresh to strong E-SE winds and seas to 8 ft are observed on the east side of the trough axis. The trough will move westward across the central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday before dissipating. By Thursday, expect increasing southerly winds across the NW waters ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the area by early Friday morning. Marine guidance indicates strong southerly flow ahead of the front north of 27N and and strong westerly flow following the front north of 27N through Saturday with seas reaching 8 to 9 ft north of 30N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also likely accompany the front north of 28N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.