000 AGXX40 KNHC 270730 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 330 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging from the western Atlantic to the eastern Gulf along 28N is shifting east ahead of a cold front is moving off the Texas coast and entering the far northwest Gulf. The front will stall from near Mobile Bay to just north of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W, then will lift north again as a weak warm front through Thursday night. Southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong across the central and western Gulf Friday and Saturday, between the Atlantic ridge to the east and deepening low pressure moving from west Texas to the Central Plains, with seas building to 12 ft over the northwest Gulf late Saturday. A trailing cold front moving through coastal Texas will enter the northwest Gulf early Sunday. The main forecast issue remains the chance of winds to minimal gale force off the coast of Veracruz on Sunday. The GFS has been trending toward this over the past several runs. The ECMWF from 12Z yesterday was stronger than earlier. Ensemble guidance is not very bullish yet on gales however. Will hold winds just below gale force for now off Veracruz Sunday. At any rate, the strong winds will be brief, as the front stalls and dissipates from central Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche through late Monday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A relatively weak pressure pattern continues due to the weakness of the subtropical ridge north of the region. Moderate to fresh trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean and the tropical north Atlantic waters west of 55W to the south of the high pressure ridge over the north central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are occurring over the central and western Caribbean. The ridge to the north is rebuilding, however. Localized fresh to strong winds will pulse near the Gulf of Honduras and along the coast of northern Colombia during the overnight hours tonight. These pulses will grow in strength and areal extent by Friday night as the gradient tightens between strong ridging over the western Atlantic and troughing approaching from the west. By late Saturday, the building ridge to the north will support strong winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola near Cabo Beata as well. Fresh trade winds and building seas will generally prevail across the remainder of the region. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Ridging extending along 28N will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in the open Atlantic east of the Bahamas through Friday. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 22N Saturday through Sunday. Southeast to south return flow will increase east of Florida north of 27N and west of 75W by late Sunday as a cold front approaches the area from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, the gradient will relax again early next week as the supporting upper dynamics shift north of the area and the front dissipates. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.