000 AGXX40 KNHC 251842 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 242 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1012 mb high has shifted SE and is centered across the SE central Gulf today, behind an ill defined frontal boundary that has washed out across NW Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Anticyclonic flow thus prevails across the basin with gentle to moderate W to NW winds across NW portions, light and variable winds SE and Central and fresh Sly return flow already set up W and NW portions. Peak seas this morning were across the SE at 4-6 ft and NW at 4-5 ft. Seas currently building in the freshening flow NW portions. The southerly return flow is occurring between the high pressure and troughing over the southern Plains. Models show these winds increasing fresh to strong tonight through Wednesday midday across most of W half of basin, ahead of an approaching front. The front forecast to reach the Texas coast around 00Z Thu, then make slow progress SEward, before stalling from SE LA to offshore of Veracruz before stalling Thu and quickly lifting NW and inland Fri. Winds and seas will increase Saturday across western Gulf ahead of a deeper lower pressure moving through Texas, with strong winds increasing to 20-30 kt. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The weak cold front has washed out across NW Cuba and far NW Carib today while overnight ASCAT data showed diffluent Nly wind flow through the Yucatan Channel. Atlc ridge extending SSW into N portions of tropical N Atlc waters and broad cyclonic flow associated with front and troughing to its E have induced an inverted trough past 24 hours across central Carib, with moderate SE winds E of 72W and N to NE winds to the W of 72W. Peak seas this morning of 6-near 8 ft were occurring across SE portions in the fetch of ESE 15-20 kt winds. Sfc low along the Carolina coasts will lift NNE next 24-36 hours and allow Atlc ridge to begin to build into the region and bring a return to Ely trade winds across all but NW Carib, where winds will open up into the Gulf ahead of next front approaching Texas coast. This will establish a stable pattern across the basin and little change is expected through the remainder of the week, except for brief pulses of fresh to strong winds mainly during overnight hours in the Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia starting Wednesday night. Models depicting strong Atlc ridge dominating Central and W Atlc into next week to generally maintain this pattern. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Deep layered low pressure is centered across coastal NC with very weak frontal boundary spiraling out of low and through 31N73W to W central Cuba. Supporting mid to upper troughing continues to support very active convection E of 70W in strong SE llvl flow. Morning ASCAT pass missed all of this area where models are depicting 20-25 kt sfc winds, but buoy and altimeter data do verify seas 7-12 ft within this assumed fetch area. The front will continue to drift slowly east, mainly NE of Bahamas, and will dissipate tonight. As mentioned above, high pres NE of low and across NW central Atlc will strengthen and build across the region along 27N/28N in the wake of the front Wed night through Fri, allowing gentle to moderate winds and slight seas N of 25N through Saturday, while moderate to locally fresh Ely trades and seas 4-6 ft prevail S of 25N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.