000 AGXX40 KNHC 230722 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 322 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level short-wave trough is supporting an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms that is affecting most of the Florida Keys, the Straits of Florida and parts of south Florida. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. At 23/0300 UTC, a surface low of 1010 mb is analyzed over western Cuba with a trough extending northward across the SE Gulf. The low is forecast to move across south Florida today. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system will then end over the southeast Gulf late today as the low moves away from the Gulf region. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail except behind a cold front currently moving across the NW Gulf. The cold front extends from Mobile Alabama to near Brownsville Texas. Fresh to strong winds follow the front with seas of 4-6 ft based on buoy observations. Seas will further build to 6-8 ft in the wake of the front across the west-central waters early this afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico this morning, and from south Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula late Monday morning, pushing SE of the Gulf by late Monday. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will dominate most of the Gulf waters tonight with seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. High pressure will build behind the front with decreasing winds and seas by late Monday into Tuesday. By mid week, fresh to strong southerly return flow is forecast to develop over the western Gulf between Atlantic high pressure and low pressure over northern Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The most recent scatterometer data indicate mainly light and variable winds across the western Caribbean while moderate to fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere, except across the waters south of Hispaniola to about 16N where fresh lo locally strong winds are blowing. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Monday, then will reach from central Cuba to northern Honduras Monday night into Tuesday before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected behind the front Monday. Then, expect light to gentle winds across the western half of the Caribbean Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic waters throughout the forecast period. Northeast swell is currently reaching the Atlantic passages in the NE Caribbean, including the Anegada and Mona Passages, and also the Tropical N Atlantic waters. Seas will build to 7 ft across those areas through tonight. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure over the northeastern waters will retreat eastward tonight into Monday, as the aforementioned low pressure tracks northeast across South Florida today, then intensifies as it merges with a frontal system over the northwestern waters on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the Bahamas through tonight and continue to spread northeast across the northern zones ahead of the low Monday. The pressure gradient between this low and the high pressure to the east will result in strong to near gale force southeast winds developing northeast of the Bahamas late Sunday through Monday night with seas building to 8 to 12 ft. Latest model guidance suggests that frequent gusts to gale force or minimal gale-force winds will occur across forecast zone AMZ113, east of the deepening low on Monday before the low moves north of the area. Then, the decision was made and a gale warning will be issued with the 0600 UTC forecast package. As the low merges with a frontal system later on Monday, a cold front will cross the northwestern waters. The front will then reach from 31N75W to central Cuba on Tuesday morning, with strong southerly winds persisting east of the front. Winds and seas will gradually diminish by Wednesday across the forecast region as the low lifts well north of the area and the associated cold front dissipates over the SW N Atlantic waters. By that time, high pressure centered just northeast of the Bahamas will dominate the forecast region. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning Mon. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.