000 AGXX40 KNHC 221821 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 221 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper trough interacting with a surface trough over the southeastern Gulf will continue to generate numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over this area through tonight. A broad area of low pressure is developing over the southeastern Gulf and will track northeastward over south Florida on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system will then end over the southeast Gulf late Sunday as the low moves northeast of the region. Meanwhile, a cold front is about to emerge off the Texas coast and will move southeast across the Gulf of Mexico through Monday. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front through Sunday night, then will decrease as the area of high pressure building behind the front weakens. Seas will build to 8 ft Sunday just offshore the Texas and northeast Mexico coasts, where the strongest post-frontal winds are expected. By mid week, fresh to strong return flow is forecast to develop over the western Gulf between Atlantic high pressure and low pressure over northern Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A surface trough extending from the southeastern Gulf to Belize supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over, and just east of the Yucatan Channel, will shift north of the Caribbean on Sunday. Another surface trough supporting numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms that currently extends from near the Cayman Islands to Hispaniola will move northeast and weaken through Sunday. Fresh easterly winds north of this second surface trough will diminish through tonight as the trough moves across the Greater Antilles. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail over the western half of the Caribbean through Sunday. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean on Monday, then will reach from central Cuba to northern Honduras Monday night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds are expected behind the front Monday. Then, after a return to light to gentle winds across the western half of the Caribbean Tuesday and Tuesday night, southeast winds across the northwestern Caribbean will increase to 15 to 20 kt as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic going into the middle of next week. Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic waters throughout the forecast period. Northerly swell of 6 to 8 ft will clip the tropical Atlantic zones north of 15N tonight. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure over the northeastern waters will retreat eastward Sunday night into Monday, as low pressure developing over the southeastern Gulf tracks northeast across South Florida Sunday, then intensifies as it merges with a frontal system over our northwestern waters on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the Bahamas through tonight and continue to spread northeast across our northern zones ahead of the low Monday. The pressure gradient between this low and the high pressure to the east will result in strong to near gale force southeast winds developing northeast of the Bahamas late Sunday through Monday night with seas building to 8 to 12 ft. There are indications in the latest model runs that gale-force winds may occur over our waters north of 29N, east of the deepening low on Monday before the low moves north of our area. If these model trends continue, then a Gale Warning may become necessary. As the low merges with a frontal system later on Monday, a cold front will cross the northwestern waters. The front will then reach from 31N75W to central Cuba on Tuesday morning, with strong southerly winds persisting east of the front mainly north of 27N. Strong winds will diminish by Wednesday over our waters as the low lifts well north of the area and the associated cold front dissipates over our waters. By that time, high pressure will become centered just northeast of the Bahamas with generally tranquil marine conditions expected for the Wednesday and Thursday time period across our Atlantic zones. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.