000 AGXX40 KNHC 200721 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 321 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A few showers and thunderstorms are noted over the south-central and southwest Gulf in association with an upper-level low spinning over the SW Gulf. The most recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh easterly winds across the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate east to southeast flow continues elsewhere across the Gulf, south of a weak surface ridge extending across the northern Gulf. The ridge will remain in place across the Gulf region through Friday. A thermally induced trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon. This trough will shift into the southwest Gulf each evening accompanied by moderate to fresh northeast winds, then it will dissipate each morning. Expect fresh southerly return flow across the northwest Gulf late Friday ahead of a weak cold front forecast to enter the northwest Gulf by Saturday afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front, with seas building to 7-8 ft by Sunday morning. At that time, the front is forecast to extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. Then, the front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Sunday evening, sweeping southeast of the basin by Monday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Latest buoy observations and scatterometer data indicated mainly moderate trade winds across most of the basin, except for fresh to locally strong winds south of Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in these areas and off the coast of Colombia through Sunday. Northerly swell continues to move through Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean, but seas have diminished below 8 ft. This swell event is also affecting the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands with seas now reaching 6-8 ft. These seas will continue to subside from north to south to 5-6 ft later today. A cold front will move into the far northwest Caribbean Monday followed by moderate to fresh northwest winds. Otherwise little change is expected. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weak cold front is moving across the NE waters. Building high pressure in the wake of the front is producing fresh easterly winds across the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba...including the approaches to the Windward Passage, with seas of 5-6 ft. The ridge will become re-established over along 27N/28N Friday. Additional pulses of NE swell will reach the E and SE waters Friday night into Saturday, building seas to 8-10 ft across the Atlantic Ocean N of 20N between 60W-65W by Saturday morning. Southerly winds will increase to 15-20 kt off northeast Florida by late Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The front is forecast to enter the forecast region by Sunday night, then stall across the NW waters on Monday. Looking ahead, the general consensus among global models show a weak low pressure area forming of the northern Bahamas Monday, although there remains some uncertainty regarding exact position and intensity at this time. This may enhance southerly flow over the waters northeast of the Bahamas between the developing low pressure and a high pressure center located east of Bermuda. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.