000 AGXX40 KNHC 150626 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 226 AM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure northeast of the region extending across the Gulf will continue supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across most of the basin through this morning. The high will build southeastward through today and become centered near Bermuda by Sunday. As the high builds southeastward, easterly winds will increase to fresh to strong across the southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. The winds will decrease by Monday morning when the ridge settles east of the basin. A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula and shift westward across the southwestern Gulf during the overnight hours, and gradually weaken through late each morning. Expect a ne-e-se 15 to 20 kt wind shift along the trough axis, with seas building to 6 ft, except fresh to strong conditions are forecast along the trough the next 3 evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure building across the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh northeast winds over the majority of the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds across the Lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, and south of Hispaniola. The strongest winds over these three areas will occur tonight, as the high to the north builds southeastward. The high will then settle east of Florida by Sunday night and will weaken through early next week, allowing for winds to decrease to mainly moderate across the western Caribbean and moderate to fresh across the central and eastern Caribbean for the Monday through Thursday time period. Forecast models have been predicting enhanced low level convergence across an east to west corridor along about 15N across the central and eastern Caribbean as the high north of the region build southward, and a storm system across the central Atlantic drags a cold front near the northeast Caribbean. The result will be increasing shower activity across this portion of the Caribbean starting later today and peaking by Monday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A 1012 mb low near 23N67W will dissipate through today, while a new area of low pressure develops east of our zones near 29N57W tonight. The tight pressure gradient between high pressure off the northeastern United States and the low currently over the area supports a large area of strong winds north and west of the low with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The high will build southeastward through tonight, while the new low to the east of the area intensifies and moves east. This will allow for the strong winds to expand in coverage to all zones this afternoon through Sunday, except for the far southeast, and far northwest, with seas of 8 to 11 ft over this area of strong winds. The high will settle across the northern waters early this upcoming week which will provide tranquil conditions with light winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft over the northern waters, and moderate to fresh east to northeast winds with seas of 8 to 9 ft over the southern waters. There is a chance for strong winds near the approach to the Windward Passage early next week as well. Winds over the southern waters are then forecast to diminish around 15 kt by mid week as the high weakens. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.