000 AGXX40 KNHC 110825 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 425 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridge prevails over the northern forecast waters producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of basin early this morning. Strengthening pres gradient between the ridge and stalled frontal system and complex troffing across the Atlc between 60W and 70W producing fresh to strong ENE flow through the Straits of FL and into SE portions of Gulf attm where seas are likely 5-8 ft and potentially higher where winds are blowing against FL Current. Long WNW fetch from SE gulf to Texas coastal waters producing seas generally 5-6 ft across much of central and W portions of basin with seas to 7 ft in S half of TX coastal waters. The afternoon thermal trough has moved W off the Yucatan peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche along 92-93W. Little change in overall conditions are expected today. The ridge will prevail over the northern waters through Friday night, with induced pres gradient across the Bahamas and through the Straits decreasing modestly tonight through Thu before increasing again Fri through the weekend. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each evening. This trough will propagate westward into the southwest waters during the overnight hours before dissipating each morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Latest data depicts fresh to strong NE winds occurring in lee of Cuba and through Windward Psg, and also across small area over the south central Caribbean waters directly off NW Colombia coast. Meanwhile gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the remainder of the Caribbean, except for fresh NE winds through Mona Psg and across SE coastal waters of Dom Rep. E trades have freshened slightly across the Tropical North Atlantic forecast zones, where seas are running 6-7 ft. Winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong over the south central Caribbean through Friday night. High pressure building north of the area will maintain tight pres gradient across the Bahamas and adjacent Atlc allowing fresh NE winds to pulse to strong through the Windward Psg and in the lee of Cuba each night starting tonight. Complex trof N of Puerto Rico next several days will result in gently winds across the extreme NE Carib through Wed at least. Otherwise conditions will generally remain the same through Friday night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front extends from 30N57W to near 28N65W with remnants of boundary then continuing WSW towards the central Bahamas as an ill defined warm front. A series of complex llvl trofs are found to the S and SE of this boundary, with a mean N to S trough along about 68W. Broad ridge to the N producing tightening pres gradient to the N and NW of frontal boundary and yielding a broad swath of strong NE to ENE winds from beyond 65W into the Bahamas and to Cuba and through the Straits of FL. Global models suggest strongest winds should currently be between 65W and 70W which was partially sampled by recent ASCAT pass with around 25 kt. Seas within this fetch currently building to 7-9 ft and possibly to near 10 ft in wind max. These strong winds spread downstream through most of Bahamas and into coast of SE FL, where 41114 is reporting 5 ft seas. Upper trof from near Bermuda SW across Greater Antilles and into NW Carib will sweep slowly Ewd next few days with broad cutoff low developing and interacting with llvl troffing S of the frontal boundary to eventually produce a broad sfc low in the general vcnty of 24N67W by early Wed that will attempt to organize Wed through Thu and then lift out to the ENE Fri through the weekend. Prefer the ECMWF solution and have trended towards this. The broad fetch of NE winds currently NW of the frontal boundary will shift across the broad N semicircle of the developing low late Tue and Wed and likely reach 25-30 kt with 8-11 ft seas across the NE zones, while NE to NNE winds 20-25 and seas 7-9 ft prevail elsewhere between Bahamas and 70W through late Thu. Active convection will also continue across SE semicircle of developing upper low during this time. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.