000 AGXX40 KNHC 100840 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 440 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure persists over the basin this morning, with a ridge extending SW into the NE Gulf from sfc high centered off of Cape Hatteras. Latest data depicts fresh Se return flow across the NW, strong E to SE flow behind an outflow boundary propagating off the W Yucatan Peninsula, and fresh to strong ESE developing across the Straits of FL and SE portions. Peak seas are likely 6-7 ft off of NW Yucatan, 5-6 ft in the Straits and 5-6 ft NW portions. The ridge will prevail through Tue with little change in conditions before ridge realigns more E to W Tue night to Wed to produce moderate to fresh E to ESE winds N half of basin. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each evening and propagate westward into the southwest waters during the overnight hours before dissipating each morning. Models also suggest afternoon thermal trough to develop along W coast of Fl inducingmore N to NNE winds E of 85W each afternoon through evening before trough shifts W during the late evening hours and dissipates. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Frontal boundary has washed out across NW Carib while remnant stationary front continues from E coastal Cuba NE into central Atlc and blocks W Atlc ridge from building S into basin. Inverted troffing is beginning to develop SE of the front in the Atlc and N of the VI and Puerto Rico, inducing weak winds across the far NE Carib. Latest data depicts fresh to strong NE winds off of Colombia, and fresh NE winds through Windward Psg and in lee of central Cuba. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Little change in overall conditions expected through Wed as front across Atlc drifts slowly NW through Srn Bahamas and troffing to its SE become more pronounced and continues to influence a gentle wind flow across the NE Carib. Winds across lee of central and NW Cuba will continue to maximize to strong at night and kick up seas downstream to 5-6 ft each night, while similar pulsing occurs within Windward Psg. Models suggest this may continue through the end of the week as broad low pres develops out of troffing to N of Puerto Rico and persist through end of week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weakening stationary front extends from near 31N60W to the E coast of Cuba, while inverted troffing has developed to its SE to the N of VI and Puerto Rico. Latest data depicts freshening NE to ENE wind flow S of 29N and NW of the front extending W into the FL coastal waters due to strengthening pres gradient. A series of trofs and vorts are moving trough mean upper trof across NW Atlc SW to NW Carib with SW jet energy SE of trough enhancing convection along the stalled front. Strongest winds and highest seas occurring within 210-240 nm NW of front between 23N and 29N. Models have continued to suggest a broad week sfc low will evolve out of the inverted troffing by mid week with ECMWF seeming the most consistent and have followed that trend through the end of the week. Pres gradient NW of front and inverted trof/low will maintain broad area of strong NEly winds across much of the waters S of 30N and W of 67-68W through Tue before low begins to develop Wed and drifts N to NNW and induces strong winds across broad area N of broad low near 25N66W through Thu before vorticity begins to shear off to the NE late in week and through weekend. Large area of 6-9 ft seas to prevail E through NE of Bahamas through Wed before highest seas of 8-10 ft shift farther NE in the strong winds expected N of developing low. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.