000 AGXX40 KNHC 081757 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 157 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over southern Alabama extends into the central Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data shows light to gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the basin, with ship and buoy obs along with altimeter data showing seas generally 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh southeast return flow will set up over the NW Gulf this evening through Sunday ahead of a cold front advancing in the southern Plains, while fresh easterly flow develops in the E Gulf Sunday night and Monday as the front stalls across central Texas. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds associated with the Yucatan trough will develop and move west in the Bay of Campeche each night Sunday through Wednesday. Moderate trades are expected elsewhere across the basin through Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A weakening cold front NW of Jamaica will stall and dissipate through Sunday. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE winds within 100 nm of the coast of Colombia, moderate to fresh trades south of 14N, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Sea heights are mostly 4-5 ft except 6-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. An inverted trough is expected to develop SE of a stalled front across the Atlantic between 60W and 70W, and maintain a modest pressure gradient and gentle to moderate trade winds across most of the basin through Tuesday. A strong pressure gradient will develop between high pres to the north and the trough to induce a swath of strong NE nocturnal winds southwest of Cuba Sun, Mon and Tue nights to build seas to at least 6 ft each early morning. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weakening cold front nearly bisects the offshore zones from 29N65W to eastern Cuba near 21N75W. A secondary surge of cooler air is analyzed as a trough across northern waters from 32N69W to 29N77W. ASCAT data and ship obs show fresh northerly winds behind the front north of the southern Bahamas, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Max combined seas are 8-9 ft north of 29N near the frontal boundary. The front will weaken and stall during the next 48 hours, and an inverted trough is expected to develop SE of the stalled front north of the Virgin Islands. a strong pres gradient will develop between the stalled boundary and high pres shifting off mid Atlc coast to produce an elongated swath of NE winds that will affect much of the northwestern zones, including the Bahamas and Cuba. A surface low may try to develop within the inverted trough by mid week, and produce area of winds around 30 kt and seas 10-12 ft north of 25N between 62W and 75w. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will affect coast of southern Florida coast Sun night through late Wed, then diminish Thursday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.