000 AGXX40 KNHC 040743 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 343 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Mobile Bay Alabama to 24N93W then stationary to Tampico Mexico. The front will stall this morning then lift north of the area today ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. This stronger front will emerge off the Texas coast tonight and reach from near Mobile Bay to Veracruz Mexico by late Wednesday. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. The main forecast issue continues to be how strong the winds will be off Veracruz Wednesday and Thursday morning. Operational global and ensemble model output remains mixed and inconsistent as to the likelihood of gales, although a general consensus has developed showing at least 30 kt winds off Veracruz Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The winds diminish to 20 kt or less across all but the far southwest Gulf through late Thursday as the front sweeps southeast of the area followed by building high pressure. The short duration of the stronger winds will limit wave growth to briefly 8 ft in areas, with up to 9 ft off Veracruz, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in most areas by Friday night. A weak pressure pattern will continue through Saturday with gentle breezes and slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... High pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trades over most of the Caribbean except fresh to strong trades over the Gulf of Honduras through Wednesday night, and strong to near gale force in the south central Caribbean through the end of the week. Seas will peak near 10-13 ft NW of the Colombia coast at night, when the strongest winds are forecast to occur. A weakening cold front will move into the far northwest Caribbean late Thursday, eventually stalling and dissipating from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by late Friday night into early Saturday. Large northerly swell to 8 ft east of the Windward Islands will decay below 8 ft through tonight. Another push of northerly swell to 8 ft will reach the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands to 55W by late Wednesday, propagating to east of Barbados by late Thursday, then decaying below 8 ft by late Friday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Clusters of showers and thunderstorms remain active over the Gulf Stream off northeast Florida this morning, supported in part by a vigorous short wave trough in the mid levels of the atmosphere migrating from the northeast Gulf to the Carolinas. Strong southerly flow is also ongoing in this area, between 1021 mb high pressure centered to the east near 30N67W and a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. The front will move off the Georgia coast then north of the area through late today, allowing winds and thunderstorms to diminish. The reprieve will be brief as another, stronger front approaches the region, reaching the coast of northeast Florida by early Thursday. The main forecast issue will be the possibility of southerly winds to minimal gale force near 30N between 75W and 80W late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning ahead of the approaching front. Ensemble guidance shows low probabilities for gales south of 30N, with a much greater probability farther north off the Georgia and Carolinas coasts. Forecast will reflect near gale force for this area from early Thursday to late Thursday, with seas reaching 10 to 12 ft by late Thursday near 30N west of 70W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the front across the waters north of 28N west of 75W Wednesday night through early Thursday. The front will reach from 31N68W to central Cuba by early Friday, from Bermuda to the Windward Passage by early Saturday, and from 31N60W to central Hispaniola by early Sunday. The area of fresh to strong westerly winds and seas in excess of 8 ft will push east across the waters north of 28N to 65W through late Saturday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.