000 AGXX40 KNHC 261749 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure northeast of the region will support mainly moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the southern Gulf and moderate southerly winds over the northern Gulf through Wednesday night. The exception will be fresh to possibly strong east to northeast winds associated with a thermal trough moving westward from the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of Campeche each night. High pressure will build southward over the Bahamas by Tuesday night. At the same time, low pressure will move over the southern plains with a cold front over interior Texas. This pattern will result in a tightening of the pressure gradient across the western Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday and then the central Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday. Expect fresh to strong southeast winds to develop over the western Gulf Tuesday night and spread eastward to the central Gulf through Wednesday night. Forecast models are indicating a cold front will cross the northern gulf from west to east, reaching the offshore waters of the northwest Gulf beginning on Wednesday night, then the north central Gulf by Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely just ahead of the front. Latest model runs are forecasting the front and associated shower and thunderstorm activity to remain mainly north of 27N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A weak pressure pattern with moderate winds will persist across the Caribbean through Tuesday as low pressure over the SW N Atlantic slowly moves north then east away from the region. High pressure will build across the Bahamas by Tuesday night and persist there through early Thursday night. This will bring a slight increase in the trades across the Caribbean, with fresh to locally strong southeast winds developing across the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh easterly winds and northerly swell are maintaining seas of 8 ft north of 15N over the Atlantic forecast zones today. By tonight, seas are forecast to subside to 6 to 7 ft across this area and last through the rest of the week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Latest scatterometer data and satellite imagery places the center of the low pressure over the SW N Atlantic near 23N68W, moving north-northwest. An elongated surface trough extends from near 28N68W, through the low, to near the Mona Passage. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and the low continues to support a large area of strong to near gale force winds north of the low, with gale force winds from about 120 nm to 240 nm north of the low center. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are also within a few hundred nm of the low across the northern semicircle. Seas of 12 to 16 ft are within about 300 nm north of the low center, with a large area of 8 to 12 ft seas across the Atlantic zones south of 30N, east of 77W, outside of the Bahamas. The forecast philosophy essentially remains unchanged over the past 24 hours, with the low moving slowly and generally northward through Monday, before turning northeast while beginning to accelerate. The low will then exit the northeastern zones Tuesday morning. The area of strong winds, gales, and large seas will generally maintain their same proximity to the low as the low makes its trek across the northeast zones early this week. Although the low center will be east of the northeastern zones Tuesday, strong to near gale winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft will remain north of 25N, east 70W through at least Tuesday evening. Winds will subside below 25 kt over the northeast zones by Wednesday morning, with seas of 8 ft or greater lingering into early Wednesday night. Meanwhile, high pressure will build across the Bahamas by Tuesday night and remain centered there through at least Thursday evening. This will support fair weather across that portion of the basin through the middle of the week with gentle to moderate winds. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning today into Mon night. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning today into tonight. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.