000 AGXX40 KNHC 211817 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 217 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... E to W ridge along 26.5N with light to moderate winds around periphery except NE gulf. Peak seas to 4 ft SW and NW coastal waters. Ridge will drift slightly S next 24 hours then realign as next cold front sinks S across the NE gulf late Wed through Thu. Increasing return flow will develop during this time W portions before high collapses Thu and front moves S across far ern gulf and FL and reaches the Straits Thu night and become ill defined across W Cuba Fri. Strong high pres behind front to shift E off the mid Atlc coast Thu night and induce strong E to SE winds across entire basin early Fri through early Sat before winds subside slowly Sat through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... E to W ridge extends from central Gulf of Mex to near 60W and is producing modest pres gradient across the basin. Stalled frontal boundary is hung up across nrn Hispaniola and helping to force fresh to strong winds through Windward Psg while fresh NE winds cover much of the NW part in lee of Cuba. Peak seas likely 5-6 ft in lee of Cuba and also offshore of Colombia. The ridge will shift ENE and weaken next 24 hours and next cold frontal system exits E coast of US and begin to move SE across wrn Atlc. Winds to back slightly across most of W half of basin and veer ESE E half as old front washes out and NE to SW trough develops from Hispaniola into central Atlc. Winds will pulse to around 25 kt next few nights off Colombia before front moves through Bahamas Thu and Fri and strong pres gradient develops N of frontal boundary. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail Fri and Sat through Windward Psg and in lee of Cuba while pres gradient remains modest elsewhere across the basin. Large N swell underforecast by models will move through NE and E Carib passages tonight through Thu. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extending sw from 31N51W to the Dominican Republic has stalled, with weak E to W ridge behind it along 26.5N. Front to gradually wash out and drift WNW on Wed. Large N to NE swell behind front is moving through area waters from FL E coast to Central Atlc, with buoy and altimeter obs indicting models about 3 ft low on swell E of 75W. Next front to sink SSE across area Wed evening through Fri night when it will stall along about 23N and into the SE Bahamas. Strong high pres behind front to produce strong N to NE winds behind front through Fri afternoon before pres gradient tightens while fronts slows progress, to produce large area of 25-30 kt winds about 240 nm N of front and E of Bahamas, where seas of 10 to 15 ft develop in mixed N swell and wind swell. Quite a large area of 30 kt winds depicted in models Fri afternoon, and ensembles beginning to show slight chances for gales there. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.