000 AGXX40 KNHC 200508 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 108 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface high analyzed at 28N92W is forecast to shift e to near 28N85W tonight, with the ridge axis orientated sw to 22N98W. The high should then meander over the ne gulf waters through Tue, then shift back w to over the n-central waters on Wed, then shift n of the area on Thu. A dry cold front will dissipate across the far se gulf today with moderate to locally fresh n flow across the eastern waters. These post-frontal winds will clock to the ne later today with a narrow band of strong ne winds expected briefly along the far w coast of Cuba and into the eastern Yucatan Channel this evening. The pressure gradient will relax tonight as remnants of the front wash out, and moderate ne flow sets up across the se gulf with little change then expected through Wed morning. Guidance suggests that the gradient will tighten again on Wed night through Fri, with fresh to locally strong ne winds across the se portion. A thermal trough will develop late each afternoon over the Yucatan Peninsula, and shift w across the waters s of 22N between 90W and 93W during the overnight hours, and gradually lose identity along about 94W late each morning. Expect a ne-e- se 20-25 kt wind shift along the trough, with seas building briefly to 7 ft. Model guidance is suggesting a more significant wind event on Thu night as strong return flows develops across the entire western gulf, and fresh to locally strong easterly flows sets up across the eastern gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A frontal trough analyzed from eastern cuba to eastern Honduras will gradually dissipate through tonight, while accompanied by a few showers. Fresh to locally strong ne flow, and seas to 7 ft, are forecast to the w of this decaying front today, then mostly moderate nw flow is forecast for the next few days, except for brief fresh to strong ne pulses expected in the Windward passage, to the lee of eastern Cuba and across the eastern Yucatan Passage each night through Wed night. The pressure gradient is expected to significantly strengthen late this week with strong to near gale force ne flow setting up across the n- central and nw Caribbean waters. Strong ne nocturnal winds expected within 90 nm of the nw coast of Colombia this week. Moderate trades expected elsewhere through Wed. Fresh trades forecast across the tropical waters e of the Leewards on Wed night with seas building to 8 ft. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A frontal trough from 31N60W to e Cuba will continue to weaken as it drifts nw today. A cold front extending sw from 31N67W to se Fl is accompanied by a strong to near gale force sw-w-nw wind shift, and 8-11 ft seas to the n of 27N w of 62W, with a small swatch of minimal gale force northwesterly flow near 31N72W just prior to sunrise this morning. This cold front will merge with the remnants of the frontal trough along a position from Bermuda to nw Cuba later this morning, and nearly stall from 27N55W to the Windward Passage early Tue as associated winds diminish to 20 kt or less. Expect seas of 8 ft or greater to dip as far s as 23N across the waters e of the Bahamas in the wake of this cold front, then subside from the n beginning tonight with seas of 8 to 10 ft shifting to the e of 65W on Wed. The front will move w on Wed and Thu. A drier cold front will move off the Fl coast late Tue night, and reach from Bermuda to Central Florida on Wed night then lose identity along 24N on Thu as strong to near gale force ne winds develop across the entire area with 10 to 15 ft seas propagating s across the waters e of the Bahamas on Fri. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning ending early today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.